TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117258
Played Sep 12Finished
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
9111214118115117
Roman Reznychenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeEvgeniy Pismenniy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 99 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Evgeniy Pismenniy at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 121–102 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 102 of their 223 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Pismenniy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
121-102 in 223
Pismenniy
Correct
gap of 19 in 223, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1604 vs Reznychenko 1518
Pismenniy
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 40% vs Reznychenko 20%
Pismenniy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Pismenniy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy +1 · Reznychenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pismenniy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 1.80 / Reznychenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pismenniy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13117258
Pismenniy1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 36 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it76% 29 of 38
Reznychenko1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy6wins
AwayReznychenko4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderPismenniy leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy83.3%5 of 6
AwayReznychenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy6Reznychenko4n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S2Pismenniy3Reznychenko7n = 10Reznychenko took 7 of 10
S3Pismenniy8Reznychenko2n = 10Pismenniy took 8 of 10
S4Pismenniy7Reznychenko2n = 9Pismenniy took 7 of 9
S5Pismenniy2Reznychenko4n = 6Reznychenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyReznychenkoP − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match47.443.0+4.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 709 vs 235 / 72230%32.6%213 / 709 vs 235 / 722Avg sets wonper match1.61.4per matchAvg pointsper match36.533.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PismenniyPismenniy 1.80/Reznychenko 1.91
Miss
What we said
54%
Pismenniy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy331111113R. Reznychenko217950
LSep 5 · 16:55E. Pismenniy51991112102R. Reznychenko531111910123
WSep 5 · 02:25E. Pismenniy4181111113R. Reznychenko26114651
LAug 29 · 14:25E. Pismenniy4411811862R. Reznychenko51911911113
WAug 28 · 21:55E. Pismenniy46111311113R. Reznychenko36815581
WAug 23 · 19:55E. Pismenniy4411811143R. Reznychenko398118121
LAug 22 · 18:55E. Pismenniy561313111182R. Reznychenko54151558113
WAug 22 · 02:55E. Pismenniy501251111113R. Reznychenko45101113562
LAug 15 · 19:55E. Pismenniy581011918102R. Reznychenko591281116123
WAug 15 · 02:55E. Pismenniy51118118133R. Reznychenko46511811112
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 13 · 14:25E. Pismenniy6.00101340A. Tuzhylin1.11121583LSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy2.63711911112V. Melnik1.44115119133WSep 12 · 17:55E. Pismenniy2.6311127123Y. Masko1.4441011101LSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy2.6311711372R. Cherevko1.44811911113LSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101WSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691LSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151LSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981LSep 11 · 23:25E. Pismenniy3.00101151142Y. Masko1.36129118113WSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 13 · 14:55R. Reznychenko3.25670Y. Masko1.3311112LSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.38471581R. Cherevko1.53111113113WSep 12 · 19:55Y. Masko1.308111061R. Reznychenko3.4011412113WSep 12 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.109680R. Reznychenko6.501111103WSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113WSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111LSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691WSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121LSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151LSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791
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