TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117023
Played Sep 12Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.33
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911119611119811
Roman Reznychenko
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 70.3%
96 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 150–78 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 78 of their 228 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
150-78 in 228
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 72 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1692 vs Reznychenko 1503
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 189 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Reznychenko 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Reznychenko 30%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik -2 · Reznychenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Melnik) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.33 / Reznychenko 3.25
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Melnik)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13117023
Melnik1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 140 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 78 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 108 of 133
Reznychenko3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayReznychenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik85.7%6 of 7
AwayReznychenko66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik7Reznychenko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S2Melnik7Reznychenko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik8Reznychenko2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Melnik3Reznychenko2n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikReznychenkoM − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.629.4+8.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 708 vs 236 / 72455.8%32.6%395 / 708 vs 236 / 724Avg sets wonper match2.11.4per matchAvg pointsper match37.833.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.33/Reznychenko 3.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
74.9%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik4011117113R. Reznychenko28571151
WSep 4 · 22:25V. Melnik341111123R. Reznychenko2064100
LAug 29 · 18:25V. Melnik377614101R. Reznychenko46111112123
WAug 28 · 23:55V. Melnik331111113R. Reznychenko205870
LAug 23 · 17:25V. Melnik551291211112R. Reznychenko541011146133
WAug 22 · 17:25V. Melnik331111113R. Reznychenko143920
WAug 22 · 24:55V. Melnik4261114113R. Reznychenko321121271
LAug 15 · 17:25V. Melnik361071181R. Reznychenko4012116113
WAug 15 · 24:55V. Melnik331111113R. Reznychenko269980
WAug 9 · 17:25V. Melnik331111113R. Reznychenko141760
V. Melnik10
LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133LSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980LSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151WSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831
R. Reznychenko10
WSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111LSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572LSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691WSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121LSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151LSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831
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