TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110956
Played Sep 12Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
101213111171412––
Valeriy Melnik
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 90 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 62.1%
90 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 121–90 Valeriy Melnik Valeriy Melnik has won 90 of their 211 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
121-90 in 211
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 31 in 211, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1852 vs Melnik 1697
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Melnik 60%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 70% vs Melnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +1 · Melnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.57 / Melnik 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13110956
Tuzhylin1.57
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 198 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 127 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it89% 149 of 167
Melnik2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 32 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin66.7%4 of 6
AwayMelnik100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin6Melnik4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Tuzhylin7Melnik3n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S3Tuzhylin5Melnik5n = 10split evenly
S4Tuzhylin3Melnik4n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5Tuzhylin0Melnik3n = 3Melnik took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinMelnikT − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.235.7+2.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 654 vs 393 / 70376%55.9%497 / 654 vs 393 / 703Avg sets wonper match2.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.57/Melnik 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 22:25A. Tuzhylin—811131182V. Melnik—113155113
WAug 22 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113V. Melnik—8660
LAug 15 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—991181V. Melnik—11116113
LAug 15 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin—61111842V. Melnik—117611113
LAug 9 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—51161192V. Melnik—119116113
WAug 8 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113V. Melnik—2770
LAug 7 · 23:55A. Tuzhylin—117781V. Melnik—91111113
WAug 2 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—11115113V. Melnik—981161
WAug 1 · 13:55A. Tuzhylin—1115103V. Melnik—81340
LJul 31 · 23:55A. Tuzhylin—1191181V. Melnik—71113113
A. Tuzhylin10
LSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981WSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.44781151Y. Masko2.6311115113WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
V. Melnik10
WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151WSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113
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