TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111303
Played Sep 11Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911911––––
Valeriy Melnik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 59 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 93–137 Valeriy Melnik Roman Cherevko has won 93 of their 230 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:53What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
93-137 in 230
Melnik
Correct
gap of 44 in 230, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1665 vs Melnik 1697
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 40% vs Melnik 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 50% vs Melnik 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko +2 · Melnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.80 / Melnik 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Melnik)+5.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111303
Cherevko1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it86% 66 of 77
Melnik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 32 of 67
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevkon = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMelnik75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S2Cherevko3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Cherevko2Melnik8n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Cherevko2Melnik3n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5Cherevko4Melnik0n = 4Cherevko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoMelnikC − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.742.5−4.8per matchSweeps05−53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 739 vs 393 / 70351.3%55.9%379 / 739 vs 393 / 703Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikCherevko 1.80/Melnik 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko—8990V. Melnik—1111113
LSep 6 · 13:55R. Cherevko—911921V. Melnik—1191173
WSep 5 · 24:55R. Cherevko—917914113V. Melnik—1115111282
LAug 29 · 13:55R. Cherevko—61790V. Melnik—1119113
WAug 29 · 01:55R. Cherevko—1110135133V. Melnik—9121111112
LAug 23 · 18:25R. Cherevko—41080V. Melnik—1112113
WAug 22 · 15:55R. Cherevko—1181110113V. Melnik—81191292
LAug 21 · 23:55R. Cherevko—10770V. Melnik—1211113
LAug 15 · 18:25R. Cherevko—513110V. Melnik—1115133
WAug 14 · 23:55R. Cherevko—712911113V. Melnik—111011682
R. Cherevko10
WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113WSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113LSep 5 · 17:25Y. Masko1.7311119113R. Cherevko2.00791191WSep 5 · 15:25D. Neborak2.63111115972R. Cherevko1.44981711103
V. Melnik10
LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik1.8311811113Y. Masko1.83711931WSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik1.831115111282R. Cherevko1.83917914113WSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy2.75115631V. Melnik1.4071111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Cherevko
Sep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.40E. Pismenniy2.75—Sep 12 · 03:25R. Cherevko2.75A. Tuzhylin1.40—Sep 12 · 14:25R. Cherevko2.38Y. Masko1.53—Sep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.61R. Reznychenko2.20—Sep 12 · 16:25R. Cherevko1.40E. Pismenniy2.75—Sep 12 · 18:25R. Cherevko1.80V. Melnik1.91—Sep 12 · 20:25R. Cherevko2.75A. Tuzhylin1.40—
V. Melnik
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