TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111557
Played Sep 11Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1315411115119411
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 94 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 67.7%
94 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 140–83 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 83 of their 223 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
140-83 in 223
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 57 in 223, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1696 vs Pismenniy 1616
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 80 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Pismenniy 80%
Pismenniy
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 70% vs Pismenniy 40%
Melnik
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Pismenniy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.44 / Pismenniy 2.63
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Melnik)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111557
Melnik1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 138 of 232
Up 2–0, closes it99% 76 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it81% 106 of 131
Pismenniy2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik7wins
AwayPismenniy3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%3 of 3
AwayPismenniy42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik3Pismenniy7n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S2Melnik5Pismenniy5n = 10split evenly
S3Melnik8Pismenniy2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Melnik5Pismenniy3n = 8Melnik took 5 of 8
S5Melnik3Pismenniy1n = 4Melnik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikPismenniyM − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match43.340.1+3.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime394 / 706 vs 213 / 70955.8%30%394 / 706 vs 213 / 709Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.44/Pismenniy 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.7%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pismenniy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 23:55V. Melnik4071111113E. Pismenniy25115631
LAug 29 · 15:55V. Melnik30911100E. Pismenniy361113123
WAug 29 · 24:55V. Melnik56991212143E. Pismenniy5411111010122
WAug 23 · 15:55V. Melnik331111113E. Pismenniy227780
WAug 22 · 13:55V. Melnik4011117113E. Pismenniy30651181
LAug 22 · 03:55V. Melnik29751161E. Pismenniy4111118113
WAug 15 · 15:55V. Melnik55912139123E. Pismenniy5311101111102
WAug 15 · 03:55V. Melnik4211911113E. Pismenniy32811671
LAug 9 · 19:25V. Melnik4691111692E. Pismenniy49118811113
WAug 8 · 15:55V. Melnik621281112193E. Pismenniy591411710172
V. Melnik10
WSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy2.63711911112V. Melnik1.44115119133WSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091LSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133LSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980LSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151WSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy2.63711911112V. Melnik1.44115119133WSep 12 · 17:55E. Pismenniy2.6311127123Y. Masko1.4441011101LSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy2.6311711372R. Cherevko1.44811911113LSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101WSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572WSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691LSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151LSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981LSep 11 · 23:25E. Pismenniy3.00101151142Y. Masko1.36129118113WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950
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