TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116613
Played Sep 12Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
61171125––––
Alexander Tuzhylin
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Alexander Tuzhylin below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 2-5
Point 42 set 3, 2-5 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 62.1%
42 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 91–123 Alexander Tuzhylin Valeriy Melnik has won 91 of their 214 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
91-123 in 214
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 32 in 214, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1711 vs Tuzhylin 1842
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 130 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Tuzhylin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 60% vs Tuzhylin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Tuzhylin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Tuzhylin) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 2.10 / Tuzhylin 1.67
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116613
Melnik2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 33 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Tuzhylin1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 197 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 123 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it89% 145 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik6wins
AwayTuzhylin4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik80%4 of 5
AwayTuzhylin60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik5Tuzhylin5n = 10split evenly
S2Melnik3Tuzhylin7n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S3Melnik3Tuzhylin7n = 10Tuzhylin took 7 of 10
S4Melnik4Tuzhylin3n = 7Melnik took 4 of 7
S5Melnik4Tuzhylin0n = 4Melnik took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikTuzhylinM − TBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.939.8−1.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikTuzhylinBasisWin rate · lifetime395 / 706 vs 499 / 65756%76%395 / 706 vs 499 / 657Avg sets wonper match2.12.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinMelnik 2.10/Tuzhylin 1.67
Hit
What we said
59%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 01:55V. Melnik4212117121A. Tuzhylin48101311143
WSep 5 · 01:55V. Melnik547131211113A. Tuzhylin46111114732
LAug 29 · 19:25V. Melnik2781180A. Tuzhylin351113113
WAug 28 · 22:25V. Melnik45113155113A. Tuzhylin51811131182
LAug 22 · 01:55V. Melnik208660A. Tuzhylin331111113
WAug 15 · 13:55V. Melnik3911116113A. Tuzhylin37991181
WAug 15 · 01:55V. Melnik46117611113A. Tuzhylin4061111842
WAug 9 · 13:55V. Melnik48119116113A. Tuzhylin4251161192
LAug 8 · 13:55V. Melnik162770A. Tuzhylin331111113
WAug 7 · 23:55V. Melnik4291111113A. Tuzhylin33117781
V. Melnik10
LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980LSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151WSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113WSep 6 · 19:25D. Neborak2.386121211102V. Melnik1.531114109123LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113WSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101LSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981WSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.44781151Y. Masko2.6311115113WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080
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