TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111290
Played Sep 12Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.11
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111210119118––
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
6.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 81 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 88.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 189–18 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 18 of their 207 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
189-18 in 207
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 171 in 207, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1852 vs Pismenniy 1630
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 222 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Pismenniy 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 70% vs Pismenniy 50%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +1 · Pismenniy +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pismenniy form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (17%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.11 / Pismenniy 6.00
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111290
Tuzhylin1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite75% won 198 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 127 of 129
Up 1–0, closes it89% 149 of 167
Pismenniy6.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin10wins
AwayPismenniy0wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 10–0, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%9 of 9
AwayPismenniyn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin9Pismenniy1n = 10Tuzhylin took 9 of 10
S2Tuzhylin8Pismenniy2n = 10Tuzhylin took 8 of 10
S3Tuzhylin8Pismenniy2n = 10Tuzhylin took 8 of 10
S4Tuzhylin4Pismenniy1n = 5Tuzhylin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinPismenniyT − PBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match38.029.9+8.1per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime497 / 654 vs 212 / 70576%30.1%497 / 654 vs 212 / 705Avg sets wonper match2.61.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.11/Pismenniy 6.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—1112113E. Pismenniy—81080
WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin—1211113E. Pismenniy—10870
WAug 29 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin—1411113E. Pismenniy—12680
WAug 29 · 04:25A. Tuzhylin—111211123E. Pismenniy—13105101
WAug 21 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin—13811113E. Pismenniy—1111751
WAug 15 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin—11115113E. Pismenniy—841171
WAug 14 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin—11127113E. Pismenniy—9101161
WAug 9 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—7780
WAug 8 · 16:55A. Tuzhylin—1111113E. Pismenniy—7860
WAug 7 · 21:55A. Tuzhylin—116113113E. Pismenniy—71171152
A. Tuzhylin10
WSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.44781151Y. Masko2.6311115113WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161WSep 5 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin1.3013118113D. Neborak3.401191191WSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 13:25A. Tuzhylin1.441211912102R. Cherevko2.631481110123WSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870LSep 5 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.67111114732V. Melnik2.107131211113WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.111112113R. Reznychenko6.0081080
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 11 · 23:25E. Pismenniy3.00101151142Y. Masko1.36129118113WSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 14:55A. Tuzhylin1.111112113E. Pismenniy6.0081080LSep 5 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.111211113E. Pismenniy6.0010870
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