TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13118135
Played Sep 12Finished
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111159111191113
Valeriy Melnik
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:53 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingEvgeniy Pismenniy above · Valeriy Melnik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 98 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 67.7%
98 points played in total.
H2H Evgeniy Pismenniy 85–140 Valeriy Melnik Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 85 of their 225 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:53What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Melnik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
85-140 in 225
Melnik
Correct
gap of 55 in 225, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pismenniy 1635 vs Melnik 1705
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pismenniy 60% vs Melnik 40%
Pismenniy
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pismenniy 50% vs Melnik 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pismenniy +1 · Melnik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melnik form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPismenniy 2.63 / Melnik 1.44
Signal prob.32% / 68%
Edge (Melnik)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13118135
Pismenniy2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog24% won 62 of 254
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 149
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 93
Melnik1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 140 of 235
Up 2–0, closes it99% 78 of 79
Up 1–0, closes it81% 108 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePismenniy4wins
AwayMelnik6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePismenniy57.1%4 of 7
AwayMelnik100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pismenniy7Melnik3n = 10Pismenniy took 7 of 10
S2Pismenniy6Melnik4n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S3Pismenniy3Melnik7n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S4Pismenniy2Melnik5n = 7Melnik took 5 of 7
S5Pismenniy1Melnik2n = 3Melnik took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPismenniyMelnikP − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.839.2−1.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPismenniyMelnikBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 714 vs 397 / 71130.1%55.8%215 / 714 vs 397 / 711Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.537.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikPismenniy 2.63/Melnik 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 22:25E. Pismenniy51151159113V. Melnik43134111142
WSep 6 · 15:55E. Pismenniy341211113V. Melnik2410860
LSep 4 · 23:55E. Pismenniy25115631V. Melnik4071111113
WAug 29 · 15:55E. Pismenniy361113123V. Melnik30911100
LAug 29 · 24:55E. Pismenniy5411111010122V. Melnik56991212143
LAug 23 · 15:55E. Pismenniy227780V. Melnik331111113
LAug 22 · 13:55E. Pismenniy30651181V. Melnik4011117113
WAug 22 · 03:55E. Pismenniy4111118113V. Melnik29751161
LAug 15 · 15:55E. Pismenniy5311101111102V. Melnik55912139123
LAug 15 · 03:55E. Pismenniy32811671V. Melnik4211911113
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 13 · 19:55E. Pismenniy2.631181061R. Cherevko1.4481112113LSep 13 · 16:55E. Pismenniy3.256780Y. Masko1.331111113LSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik1.50531111113E. Pismenniy2.5011118792LSep 13 · 14:25E. Pismenniy6.00101340A. Tuzhylin1.11121583WSep 12 · 17:55E. Pismenniy2.6311127123Y. Masko1.4441011101LSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy2.6311711372R. Cherevko1.44811911113LSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101WSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572WSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691LSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151
V. Melnik10
WSep 13 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.00104100V. Melnik1.361211123WSep 13 · 18:25V. Melnik2.101111113A. Tuzhylin1.675880WSep 13 · 17:25V. Melnik1.91951111113R. Cherevko1.8011117762WSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik1.50531111113E. Pismenniy2.5011118792LSep 13 · 13:55V. Melnik1.6511991192Y. Masko2.05711118113WSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091LSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133LSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980
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