TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122086
Played Sep 13Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
117911911118911
Yevhen Masko
Away
2.05
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 97 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 56.2%
97 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 128–98 Yevhen Masko Yevhen Masko has won 98 of their 226 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (55%)
Melnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
128-98 in 226
Melnik
Wrong
gap of 30 in 226, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1705 vs Masko 1621
Melnik
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 40% vs Masko 20%
Melnik
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Masko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +2 · Masko -3
Masko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Melnik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Masko form (20%) is below what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.65 / Masko 2.05
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Melnik)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13122086
Melnik1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 132 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it99% 70 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it86% 100 of 117
Masko2.05
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 35 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back10% 5 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik4wins
AwayMasko6wins
Masko leads 6–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik100%4 of 4
AwayMasko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S2Melnik4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S3Melnik4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S4Melnik3Masko3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikMaskoMelnik − MaskoBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.833.7+0.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime397 / 711 vs 429 / 75455.8%56.9%397 / 711 vs 429 / 754Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.936.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MelnikMelnik 1.65/Masko 2.05
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Melnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Masko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik331111113Y. Masko247980
LSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik381011891Y. Masko3612211113
WSep 5 · 03:55V. Melnik4111811113Y. Masko30711931
LAug 29 · 03:55V. Melnik226880Y. Masko331111113
WAug 23 · 13:55V. Melnik3911611113Y. Masko31911471
LAug 22 · 19:25V. Melnik32129110Y. Masko381411133
LAug 21 · 22:25V. Melnik376119111Y. Masko4311811133
LAug 15 · 19:25V. Melnik28810100Y. Masko351112123
WAug 14 · 22:25V. Melnik3711114113Y. Masko30851161
LAug 9 · 15:55V. Melnik31491171Y. Masko3711114113
V. Melnik10
WSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy2.63711911112V. Melnik1.44115119133WSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091LSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133LSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980LSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151WSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113LSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113
Y. Masko10
LSep 12 · 19:55Y. Masko1.308111061R. Reznychenko3.4011412113LSep 12 · 17:55E. Pismenniy2.6311127123Y. Masko1.4441011101LSep 12 · 16:55Y. Masko3.007860A. Tuzhylin1.361111113WSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133LSep 12 · 14:25Y. Masko1.671113971R. Cherevko2.10131111113LSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980LSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121WSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113WSep 11 · 23:25E. Pismenniy3.00101151142Y. Masko1.36129118113WSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.44781151Y. Masko2.6311115113
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