TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111850
Played Sep 12Finished
Roman Reznychenko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13116111191412––
Yevhen Masko
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeYevhen Masko to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Yevhen Masko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 14-12
Point 87 set 4, 14-12 — our read held Yevhen Masko at 73.2%
87 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 53–175 Yevhen Masko Roman Reznychenko has won 53 of their 228 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Masko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
53-175 in 228
Masko
Wrong
gap of 122 in 228, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1529 vs Masko 1707
Masko
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 20% vs Masko 80%
Masko
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 10% vs Masko 50%
Masko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko -4 · Masko +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Masko) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 3.25 / Masko 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Masko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111850
Reznychenko3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 121
Masko1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 140 of 209
Up 2–0, closes it99% 84 of 85
Up 1–0, closes it90% 112 of 124
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko4wins
AwayMasko6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMasko leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko80%4 of 5
AwayMasko100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko5Masko5n = 10split evenly
S2Reznychenko6Masko4n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S3Reznychenko4Masko6n = 10Masko took 6 of 10
S4Reznychenko3Masko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoMaskoR − MBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.837.6−1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoMaskoBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 721 vs 428 / 74832.6%57.2%235 / 721 vs 428 / 748Avg sets wonper match1.42.1per matchAvg pointsper match33.636.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaskoReznychenko 3.25/Masko 1.33
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.3%
Masko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 15:25R. Reznychenko—8970Y. Masko—1111113
LSep 5 · 15:55R. Reznychenko—5111151Y. Masko—1161383
WSep 4 · 23:25R. Reznychenko—11117113Y. Masko—871151
LAug 29 · 15:25R. Reznychenko—7680Y. Masko—1111113
WAug 29 · 01:25R. Reznychenko—1113113Y. Masko—51180
WAug 23 · 18:55R. Reznychenko—12117113Y. Masko—1081191
LAug 22 · 13:25R. Reznychenko—38111382Y. Masko—1111911113
LAug 22 · 04:25R. Reznychenko—911841Y. Masko—11811113
WAug 15 · 13:25R. Reznychenko—1113123Y. Masko—711100
LAug 15 · 04:25R. Reznychenko—16912892Y. Masko—14111011113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151LSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 13:25D. Neborak1.369121193R. Reznychenko3.001110641LSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113LSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin1.1111116113R. Reznychenko6.00781161
Y. Masko10
WSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113WSep 11 · 23:25E. Pismenniy3.00101151142Y. Masko1.36129118113WSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.44781151Y. Masko2.6311115113LSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113WSep 6 · 18:25V. Melnik1.831011891Y. Masko1.8312211113LSep 6 · 16:25D. Neborak3.251111113Y. Masko1.334670WSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970LSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160LSep 5 · 18:25Y. Masko1.3088111122D. Neborak3.40111188103
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