TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122157
Played Sep 13Finished
Valeriy Melnik
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911511117117116
Roman Cherevko
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValeriy Melnik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValeriy Melnik above · Roman Cherevko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Valeriy Melnik at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Valeriy Melnik 137–93 Roman Cherevko Roman Cherevko has won 93 of their 230 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:04What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
137-93 in 230
Melnik
Correct
gap of 44 in 230, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melnik 1696 vs Cherevko 1682
Melnik
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melnik 60% vs Cherevko 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melnik 50% vs Cherevko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melnik +1 · Cherevko +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelnik 1.91 / Cherevko 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Cherevko)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13122157
Melnik1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 30 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Cherevko1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 96 of 148
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it87% 64 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelnik6wins
AwayCherevko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderMelnik leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelnik75%6 of 8
AwayCherevkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melnik8Cherevko2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S2Melnik7Cherevko3n = 10Melnik took 7 of 10
S3Melnik8Cherevko2n = 10Melnik took 8 of 10
S4Melnik3Cherevko2n = 5Melnik took 3 of 5
S5Melnik0Cherevko4n = 4Cherevko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelnikCherevkoM − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.537.7+4.8per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelnikCherevkoBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 713 vs 385 / 74955.8%51.4%398 / 713 vs 385 / 749Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoMelnik 1.91/Cherevko 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Melnik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 23:55V. Melnik331111113R. Cherevko268990
WSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik381191173R. Cherevko31911921
LSep 5 · 24:55V. Melnik571115111282R. Cherevko60917914113
WAug 29 · 13:55V. Melnik411119113R. Cherevko3261790
LAug 29 · 01:55V. Melnik549121111112R. Cherevko521110135133
WAug 23 · 18:25V. Melnik341112113R. Cherevko2241080
LAug 22 · 15:55V. Melnik4981191292R. Cherevko511181110113
WAug 21 · 23:55V. Melnik341211113R. Cherevko2410770
WAug 15 · 18:25V. Melnik391115133R. Cherevko29513110
LAug 14 · 23:55V. Melnik46111011682R. Cherevko50712911113
V. Melnik10
WSep 13 · 15:55V. Melnik1.50531111113E. Pismenniy2.5011118792LSep 13 · 13:55V. Melnik1.6511991192Y. Masko2.05711118113WSep 12 · 19:25E. Pismenniy2.63711911112V. Melnik1.44115119133WSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091LSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113LSep 12 · 15:55V. Melnik1.83817110Y. Masko1.831119133LSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153WSep 12 · 03:55V. Melnik1.731111113Y. Masko2.007980LSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151
R. Cherevko10
WSep 13 · 15:25A. Tuzhylin1.44611121192R. Cherevko2.63117146113WSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.38471581R. Cherevko1.53111113113LSep 12 · 20:25R. Cherevko3.259880A. Tuzhylin1.331111113LSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091WSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy2.6311711372R. Cherevko1.44811911113LSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111WSep 12 · 14:25Y. Masko1.671113971R. Cherevko2.10131111113WSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151LSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113
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