TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116776
Played Sep 12Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911811811––––
Alexander Tuzhylin
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Alexander Tuzhylin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 58 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 70.7%
58 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 58–160 Alexander Tuzhylin Roman Cherevko has won 58 of their 218 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
58-160 in 218
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 102 in 218, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1662 vs Tuzhylin 1831
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 169 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 60% vs Tuzhylin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 60% vs Tuzhylin 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -1 · Tuzhylin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuzhylin form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 3.25 / Tuzhylin 1.33
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13116776
Cherevko3.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 70 of 170
Down 0–1, comes back22% 23 of 104
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 60
Tuzhylin1.33
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 197 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 123 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it89% 145 of 163
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko4wins
AwayTuzhylin6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko75%3 of 4
AwayTuzhylin83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko4Tuzhylin6n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S2Cherevko4Tuzhylin6n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko5Tuzhylin5n = 10split evenly
S4Cherevko0Tuzhylin3n = 3Tuzhylin took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoTuzhylinC − TBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.133.9−1.8per matchSweeps34−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoTuzhylinBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 746 vs 502 / 66151.3%76%383 / 746 vs 502 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.02.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinCherevko 3.25/Tuzhylin 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 24:25R. Cherevko279990A. Tuzhylin331111113
LAug 22 · 03:25R. Cherevko2310850A. Tuzhylin341211113
LAug 15 · 20:25R. Cherevko36157861A. Tuzhylin46131111113
WAug 15 · 03:25R. Cherevko341111123A. Tuzhylin2899100
WAug 9 · 20:25R. Cherevko331111113A. Tuzhylin218760
LAug 8 · 18:55R. Cherevko236980A. Tuzhylin331111113
WAug 8 · 03:25R. Cherevko341112113A. Tuzhylin2451090
LAug 2 · 20:25R. Cherevko33871171A. Tuzhylin4211119113
LAug 1 · 20:25R. Cherevko217770A. Tuzhylin331111113
WAug 1 · 03:25R. Cherevko578111116113A. Tuzhylin4511361872
R. Cherevko10
LSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091WSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy2.6311711372R. Cherevko1.44811911113LSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111WSep 12 · 14:25Y. Masko1.671113971R. Cherevko2.10131111113WSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151LSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113LSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113
A. Tuzhylin10
LSep 12 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.109680R. Reznychenko6.501111103WSep 12 · 16:55Y. Masko3.007860A. Tuzhylin1.361111113WSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101WSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153LSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981WSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:25A. Tuzhylin1.44781151Y. Masko2.6311115113WSep 5 · 19:25A. Tuzhylin1.441113113Y. Masko2.6351160
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