TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116665
Played Sep 12Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 1
Set by set
811––––––––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Point 19 set 1, 8-11 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 62.1%
19 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 130–106 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 106 of their 236 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Cherevko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
130-106 in 236
Cherevko
Wrong
gap of 24 in 236, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1708 vs Reznychenko 1485
Cherevko
Wrong
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 60% vs Reznychenko 20%
Cherevko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 50% vs Reznychenko 20%
Cherevko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko +3 · Reznychenko -2
Cherevko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.61 / Reznychenko 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Cherevko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13116665
Cherevko1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 151
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it86% 65 of 76
Reznychenko2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko5wins
AwayReznychenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko66.7%4 of 6
AwayReznychenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko6Reznychenko4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Cherevko4Reznychenko6n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko5Reznychenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Cherevko6Reznychenko3n = 9Cherevko took 6 of 9
S5Cherevko1Reznychenko2n = 3Reznychenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoC − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.738.2+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime382 / 743 vs 235 / 72351.4%32.5%382 / 743 vs 235 / 723Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.633.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.61/Reznychenko 2.20
Miss
What we said
61.3%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–1
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko5510121111113R. Reznychenko4912146982
LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko346111071R. Reznychenko4111712113
WSep 5 · 19:55R. Cherevko4011711113R. Reznychenko26511371
WSep 5 · 04:25R. Cherevko341211113R. Reznychenko2310850
LAug 29 · 20:25R. Cherevko4011910101R. Reznychenko4271112123
LAug 29 · 03:25R. Cherevko47117611122R. Reznychenko48911113143
WAug 23 · 15:25R. Cherevko4211911113R. Reznychenko34911951
LAug 22 · 19:55R. Cherevko49109111182R. Reznychenko44121146113
WAug 21 · 21:55R. Cherevko4212118113R. Reznychenko351071171
LAug 15 · 15:25R. Cherevko34511991R. Reznychenko4011711113
R. Cherevko10
WSep 12 · 14:25Y. Masko1.671113971R. Cherevko2.10131111113WSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151LSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113LSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572LSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691WSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121LSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151LSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950WSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3691142R. Reznychenko3.0011831LSep 6 · 15:25Y. Masko1.331111113R. Reznychenko3.258970
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