TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122211
Played Sep 13Finished
Roman Reznychenko
Home
6.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511711811––––
Alexander Tuzhylin
Away
1.11
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:04 and never touched — 88.6% is still 88.6%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
88.6%
88.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Reznychenko above · Alexander Tuzhylin below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 53 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 88.6%
53 points played in total.
H2H Roman Reznychenko 21–194 Alexander Tuzhylin Roman Reznychenko has won 21 of their 215 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:04What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.11 (84%)
Tuzhylin
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
21-194 in 215
Tuzhylin
Correct
gap of 173 in 215, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reznychenko 1575 vs Tuzhylin 1848
Tuzhylin
Correct
both rated, 272 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reznychenko 60% vs Tuzhylin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reznychenko 50% vs Tuzhylin 70%
Tuzhylin
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Reznychenko -2 · Tuzhylin -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tuzhylin form (60%) is below what odds imply (90%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReznychenko 6.00 / Tuzhylin 1.11
Signal prob.11% / 89%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+4.2pp
Setka Cup · #13122211
Reznychenko6.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog33% won 97 of 298
Down 0–1, comes back12% 21 of 174
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Tuzhylin1.11
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite74% won 200 of 269
Up 2–0, closes it98% 126 of 128
Up 1–0, closes it89% 148 of 166
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReznychenko1wins
AwayTuzhylin9wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReznychenko20%1 of 5
AwayTuzhylin100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reznychenko5Tuzhylin5n = 10split evenly
S2Reznychenko1Tuzhylin9n = 10Tuzhylin took 9 of 10
S3Reznychenko4Tuzhylin6n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S4Reznychenko0Tuzhylin6n = 6Tuzhylin took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricReznychenkoTuzhylinR − TBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match30.838.5−7.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReznychenkoTuzhylinBasisWin rate · lifetime239 / 729 vs 504 / 66432.8%75.9%239 / 729 vs 504 / 664Avg sets wonper match1.42.5per matchAvg pointsper match33.638.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinReznychenko 6.00/Tuzhylin 1.11
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
88.6%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Tuzhylin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 18:55R. Reznychenko321111103A. Tuzhylin239680
LSep 11 · 22:55R. Reznychenko32115791A. Tuzhylin4291111113
LSep 5 · 17:55R. Reznychenko32781161A. Tuzhylin3911116113
LSep 5 · 24:25R. Reznychenko2681080A. Tuzhylin341112113
LAug 29 · 16:25R. Reznychenko34116981A. Tuzhylin4071111113
LAug 29 · 02:25R. Reznychenko33481291A. Tuzhylin43111110113
LAug 21 · 22:55R. Reznychenko2466120A. Tuzhylin361111143
LAug 15 · 18:55R. Reznychenko186750A. Tuzhylin331111113
LAug 14 · 22:55R. Reznychenko341167101A. Tuzhylin4391111123
LAug 9 · 18:55R. Reznychenko4311412882A. Tuzhylin529111011113
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 13 · 14:55R. Reznychenko3.25670Y. Masko1.3311112LSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.38471581R. Cherevko1.53111113113WSep 12 · 19:55Y. Masko1.308111061R. Reznychenko3.4011412113WSep 12 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.109680R. Reznychenko6.501111103WSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113WSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111LSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572LSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691WSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121LSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151
A. Tuzhylin10
LSep 13 · 15:25A. Tuzhylin1.44611121192R. Cherevko2.63117146113WSep 13 · 14:25E. Pismenniy6.00101340A. Tuzhylin1.11121583WSep 12 · 20:25R. Cherevko3.259880A. Tuzhylin1.331111113LSep 12 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.109680R. Reznychenko6.501111103WSep 12 · 16:55Y. Masko3.007860A. Tuzhylin1.361111113WSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101WSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153LSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 01:55A. Tuzhylin1.57101311143V. Melnik2.2512117121WSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981
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