TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106390
Played Sep 10Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811511119117611
Dmytro Palii
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:22 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Prus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Dmytro Palii below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 90 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Serhii Prus at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 7–8 Dmytro Palii Serhii Prus has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:22What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Palii
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1464 vs Palii 1470
Palii
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 60% vs Palii 0%
Prus
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 70% vs Palii 30%
Prus
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -1 · Palii -5
Palii
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Prus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Palii form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 1.83 / Palii 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Prus)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13106390
Prus1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
Palii1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus3wins
AwayPalii7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPalii leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus66.7%2 of 3
AwayPalii85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus3Palii7n = 10Palii took 7 of 10
S2Prus5Palii5n = 10split evenly
S3Prus7Palii3n = 10Prus took 7 of 10
S4Prus1Palii6n = 7Palii took 6 of 7
S5Prus1Palii2n = 3Palii took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusPaliiPrus − PaliiBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.837.1−0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusPaliiBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 409 vs 100 / 17448.2%57.5%197 / 409 vs 100 / 174Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PrusPrus 1.83/Palii 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Prus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus—85111162D. Palii—111197113
WJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus—1111113D. Palii—5830
LJul 3 · 14:55S. Prus—6111051D. Palii—11112113
LJun 30 · 04:25S. Prus—1111891D. Palii—51311113
WJun 29 · 11:55S. Prus—1111113D. Palii—7570
WJun 18 · 08:25S. Prus—911144113D. Palii—117121152
LFeb 21 · 14:25S. Prus—1171171D. Palii—1311593
LFeb 15 · 11:25S. Prus—1071161D. Palii—12115113
LFeb 8 · 09:25S. Prus—10960D. Palii—1211113
LDec 28 · 05:25S. Prus—511126122D. Palii—1191011143
S. Prus10
LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381LSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271WSep 6 · 04:55S. Prus1.73117611113O. Sydorchuk2.0091111852LSep 5 · 17:55S. Prus2.0096140O. Hudyma1.731111163WSep 5 · 16:25S. Prus2.001111113O. Sydorchuk1.736740
D. Palii10
LSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131LSep 10 · 20:45O. Sydorchuk2.6311155113D. Palii1.448131181LJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus2.101111113D. Palii1.675830LJul 4 · 09:25D. Palii2.25911451I. Pytsko1.5711911113LJul 4 · 08:25D. Palii2.0011215882O. Storozhenko1.736111311113WJul 4 · 06:55D. Palii2.1011911113O. Alieksieev1.67811991LJul 4 · 04:55D. Palii2.006780I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113LJul 3 · 18:55D. Palii2.00111851O. Storozhenko1.7311711113WJul 3 · 16:55I. Fashchevskyi1.7312851172D. Palii2.001011117113WJul 3 · 14:55S. Prus2.006111051D. Palii1.7311112113
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