TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105808
Played Sep 11Finished
Serhii Prus
Home
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119911116611511
Taras Gil
Away
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 70.4% is still 70.4%
Graded at full timeTaras Gil to win
70.4%
70.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Prus above · Taras Gil below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Taras Gil at 70.4%
90 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Prus 6–16 Taras Gil Serhii Prus has won 6 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:35What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Gil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-16 in 22
Gil
Correct
gap of 10 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Prus 1447 vs Gil 1500
Gil
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Prus 40% vs Gil 60%
Gil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Prus 50% vs Gil 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Prus -3 · Gil -1
Prus
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Gil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gil form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrus 3.00 / Gil 1.36
Signal prob.30% / 70%
Edge (Gil)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13105808
Prus3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog37% won 40 of 108
Down 0–1, comes back21% 13 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back16% 6 of 38
Gil1.36
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrus2wins
AwayGil8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGil leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrus33.3%1 of 3
AwayGil85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Prus3Gil7n = 10Gil took 7 of 10
S2Prus4Gil6n = 10Gil took 6 of 10
S3Prus2Gil8n = 10Gil took 8 of 10
S4Prus4Gil4n = 8split evenly
S5Prus1Gil2n = 3Gil took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrusGilP − GBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.440.4−7.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrusGilBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 410 vs 122 / 21548.1%56.7%197 / 410 vs 122 / 215Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match35.937.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GilPrus 3.00/Gil 1.36
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.4%
Gil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus—6940T. Gil—1111113
WSep 4 · 20:15S. Prus—411311113T. Gil—11411882
LJul 26 · 06:55S. Prus—91171172T. Gil—119116113
LJul 25 · 17:55S. Prus—116451T. Gil—61111113
LJul 25 · 02:15S. Prus—551181T. Gil—11118113
LJul 18 · 14:55S. Prus—76111352T. Gil—1111411113
WJul 15 · 16:25S. Prus—11136123T. Gil—81111101
LFeb 21 · 18:55S. Prus—1196101T. Gil—91111123
LJan 18 · 09:55S. Prus—7970T. Gil—1111113
LJan 17 · 19:25S. Prus—711951T. Gil—11511103
S. Prus10
LSep 11 · 24:45M. Slozka1.5091111113S. Prus2.50111381LSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 22:45O. Sydorchuk2.00101111123S. Prus1.731299101WSep 10 · 21:15S. Prus2.10115138113I. Fashchevskyi1.67811111182WSep 6 · 10:25M. Slozka1.44814881S. Prus2.63111211113LSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113WSep 6 · 08:25S. Prus1.4411119113R. Bihun2.63871171WSep 6 · 06:55S. Prus1.83111120113V. Kuzmych1.83882271WSep 6 · 04:55S. Prus1.73117611113O. Sydorchuk2.0091111852LSep 5 · 17:55S. Prus2.0096140O. Hudyma1.731111163
T. Gil10
LSep 11 · 01:45D. Palii2.501111113T. Gil1.509850WSep 11 · 24:15O. Sydorchuk2.639030T. Gil1.441111113WSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 20:15M. Slozka2.201111113T. Gil1.619990WSep 6 · 11:25T. Gil1.611111113O. Sydorchuk2.206690WSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113LSep 6 · 07:25M. Slozka2.25111111113T. Gil1.57713851LSep 6 · 06:25T. Gil1.28119111172R. Bihun3.50411138113LSep 6 · 05:25V. Kuzmych2.631111113T. Gil1.446950WSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113
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