TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105792
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmytro Palii
Home
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118115––––
Taras Gil
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:35 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeTaras Gil to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Palii above · Taras Gil below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 55 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Taras Gil at 65.7%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Palii 2–3 Taras Gil Dmytro Palii has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:35What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Gil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Palii 1480 vs Gil 1515
Gil
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Palii 20% vs Gil 80%
Gil
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Palii 30% vs Gil 60%
Gil
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Palii +1 · Gil +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Gil) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gil form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPalii 2.50 / Gil 1.50
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Gil)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105792
Palii2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 15 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back33% 6 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Gil1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 36 of 62
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it76% 28 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomePalii2wins
AwayGil3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderGil leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePaliin = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGil50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Palii1Gil4n = 5Gil took 4 of 5
S2Palii2Gil3n = 5Gil took 3 of 5
S3Palii3Gil2n = 5Palii took 3 of 5
S4Palii2Gil1n = 3Palii took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricPaliiGilP − GBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set14−3of 5Avg pointsper match30.835.4−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPaliiGilBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 174 vs 122 / 21457.5%57%100 / 174 vs 122 / 214Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GilPalii 2.50/Gil 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.9%
Gil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Palii won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LFeb 22 · 05:25D. Palii—4500T. Gil—1111113
WFeb 21 · 13:25D. Palii—81111103T. Gil—119971
LDec 20 · 14:25D. Palii—11611962T. Gil—511911103
WDec 6 · 12:55D. Palii—81111113T. Gil—116181
LNov 15 · 17:55D. Palii—12900T. Gil—1411113
D. Palii10
WSep 10 · 23:45S. Prus1.8385111162D. Palii1.83111197113LSep 10 · 21:45M. Slozka1.8311119113D. Palii1.83681131LSep 10 · 20:45O. Sydorchuk2.6311155113D. Palii1.448131181LJul 4 · 10:25S. Prus2.101111113D. Palii1.675830LJul 4 · 09:25D. Palii2.25911451I. Pytsko1.5711911113LJul 4 · 08:25D. Palii2.0011215882O. Storozhenko1.736111311113WJul 4 · 06:55D. Palii2.1011911113O. Alieksieev1.67811991LJul 4 · 04:55D. Palii2.006780I. Fashchevskyi1.731111113LJul 3 · 18:55D. Palii2.00111851O. Storozhenko1.7311711113WJul 3 · 16:55I. Fashchevskyi1.7312851172D. Palii2.001011117113
T. Gil10
WSep 11 · 24:15O. Sydorchuk2.639030T. Gil1.441111113WSep 10 · 22:15I. Fashchevskyi2.7589121192T. Gil1.401111108113LSep 10 · 20:15M. Slozka2.201111113T. Gil1.619990WSep 6 · 11:25T. Gil1.611111113O. Sydorchuk2.206690WSep 6 · 09:25S. Prus2.636940T. Gil1.441111113LSep 6 · 07:25M. Slozka2.25111111113T. Gil1.57713851LSep 6 · 06:25T. Gil1.28119111172R. Bihun3.50411138113LSep 6 · 05:25V. Kuzmych2.631111113T. Gil1.446950WSep 5 · 02:45I. Fashchevskyi2.503860T. Gil1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:45M. Slozka2.255111561T. Gil1.5711917113
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