TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13103343
Played Sep 9Finished
Ales Langer
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511611117611––
Jan Vonasek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:46 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeAles Langer to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Langer above · Jan Vonasek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 68 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Ales Langer at 54.4%
68 points played in total.
H2H Ales Langer 22–36 Jan Vonasek Ales Langer has won 22 of their 58 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:46What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Vonasek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-36 in 58
Vonasek
Correct
gap of 14 in 58, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Langer 1631 vs Vonasek 1528
Langer
Wrong
both rated, 104 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Langer 60% vs Vonasek 20%
Langer
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Langer 50% vs Vonasek 20%
Langer
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Langer -2 · Vonasek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Vonasek) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vonasek form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLanger 2.25 / Vonasek 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Vonasek)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13103343
Langer2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog46% won 69 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 36
Vonasek1.57
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite62% won 81 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it95% 39 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it82% 58 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLanger3wins
AwayVonasek7wins
7 of 10 to a deciderVonasek leads 7–3, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLanger25%1 of 4
AwayVonasek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Langer4Vonasek6n = 10Vonasek took 6 of 10
S2Langer3Vonasek7n = 10Vonasek took 7 of 10
S3Langer2Vonasek8n = 10Vonasek took 8 of 10
S4Langer6Vonasek2n = 8Langer took 6 of 8
S5Langer3Vonasek4n = 7Vonasek took 4 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLangerVonasekL − VBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.244.2−6.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLangerVonasekBasisWin rate · lifetime256 / 524 vs 357 / 73048.9%48.9%256 / 524 vs 357 / 730Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VonasekLanger 2.25/Vonasek 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Vonasek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vonasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 2 · 11:20A. Langer—8240J. Vonasek—1111113
WAug 27 · 10:55A. Langer—541111113J. Vonasek—11117762
WAug 26 · 06:55A. Langer—111184133J. Vonasek—541111112
LAug 7 · 06:55A. Langer—91121342J. Vonasek—1191111113
LJul 10 · 17:49A. Langer—1121011112J. Vonasek—311129133
LJul 10 · 16:20A. Langer—991131J. Vonasek—11117113
LJul 8 · 12:55A. Langer—11951272J. Vonasek—9111110113
LJun 3 · 10:45A. Langer—5850J. Vonasek—1111113
WJun 3 · 06:55A. Langer—911911113J. Vonasek—11811882
LMay 27 · 06:55A. Langer—1210711102J. Vonasek—1012118123
A. Langer10
LSep 9 · 08:55A. Langer2.207570A. Rek1.611111113WSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480LSep 9 · 06:55A. Langer2.5011121131M. Brozek1.5013148113WSep 8 · 13:50A. Langer1.851111125113V. Jr1.85513101182WSep 8 · 12:50D. Sykora1.9116100A. Langer1.801111123WSep 8 · 11:50A. Langer1.83128124113V. Jr1.831011101182WSep 8 · 10:20D. Sochor2.505114111A. Langer1.5011811133LSep 7 · 13:23A. Langer1.5791414652D. Sykora2.2511121211113LSep 7 · 12:50M. Beran2.001111113A. Langer1.736440WSep 7 · 11:50A. Langer1.611411113D. Sykora2.2012490
J. Vonasek10
LSep 9 · 09:25J. Vonasek2.256670M. Brozek1.571111113LSep 9 · 07:55A. Langer2.381111113J. Vonasek1.537480LSep 9 · 07:25A. Rek1.53811117113J. Vonasek2.3811451112WSep 6 · 21:18M. Sulc2.381291181J. Vonasek1.5314118113LSep 6 · 20:20M. Sulc3.2511614113J. Vonasek1.337111271LSep 6 · 19:50D. Hyza1.611111133J. Vonasek2.2086110LSep 6 · 18:50J. Vonasek2.10410110M. Kulisek1.671112133LSep 4 · 09:59J. Vonasek2.20111951A. Rek1.6191111113LSep 4 · 08:55J. Vonasek2.25611114102V. Nadvornik1.57117911123WSep 4 · 07:55J. Vonasek2.38781211113A. Rek1.53111110842
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