TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101168
Played Sep 10Finished
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1131164111012611
Mykyta Fomin
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:44 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingYaroslav Stepanchuk above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 85 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 56.2%
85 points played in total.
H2H Yaroslav Stepanchuk 11–9 Mykyta Fomin Mykyta Fomin has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:44What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stepanchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-9 in 20
Stepanchuk
Wrong
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepanchuk 1440 vs Fomin 1461
Fomin
Correct
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepanchuk 60% vs Fomin 40%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepanchuk 40% vs Fomin 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepanchuk -1 · Fomin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stepanchuk)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepanchuk 1.67 / Fomin 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13101168
Stepanchuk1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 89 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 59 of 84
Fomin2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 94 of 238
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back12% 9 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepanchuk5wins
AwayFomin5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepanchuk66.7%2 of 3
AwayFomin57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepanchuk3Fomin7n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S2Stepanchuk7Fomin3n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S3Stepanchuk6Fomin4n = 10Stepanchuk took 6 of 10
S4Stepanchuk5Fomin4n = 9Stepanchuk took 5 of 9
S5Stepanchuk2Fomin3n = 5Fomin took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepanchukFominS − FBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.140.2+1.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepanchukFominBasisWin rate · lifetime294 / 618 vs 273 / 56347.6%48.5%294 / 618 vs 273 / 563Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukStepanchuk 1.67/Fomin 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk—111141062M. Fomin—361112113
WAug 30 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk—81111113M. Fomin—117961
LAug 19 · 18:25Y. Stepanchuk—91111982M. Fomin—117611113
LAug 13 · 23:35Y. Stepanchuk—9911101M. Fomin—11117123
LAug 6 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk—9611121M. Fomin—11117143
WAug 4 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk—811611113M. Fomin—11611792
WJul 31 · 03:33Y. Stepanchuk—12110123M. Fomin—10711101
WJul 17 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk—9111112113M. Fomin—111381062
WJul 15 · 01:05Y. Stepanchuk—1111113M. Fomin—8760
LJul 9 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk—81161182M. Fomin—116116113
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 9 · 23:35M. Skliar3.40611113113Y. Stepanchuk1.3011891122WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113H. Kulishov1.80712591LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113
M. Fomin10
WSep 9 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov1.506850M. Fomin2.501111113LSep 9 · 21:35M. Skliar1.911011211113M. Fomin1.8012811252LSep 8 · 03:35D. Kim1.6111129113M. Fomin2.206101171WSep 8 · 02:35A. Peretiatko1.67101480M. Fomin2.101216113LSep 8 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.5391111163M. Fomin2.381163141LSep 7 · 23:05D. Us2.101111133M. Fomin1.6799110LSep 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi2.2011711113M. Fomin1.61811791LSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113LSep 4 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.61113811113M. Fomin2.2041111792WSep 4 · 24:05H. Kulishov1.737990M. Fomin2.001111113
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