TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089228
Played Sep 7Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118711117119––
Mykyta Fomin
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeMykyta Fomin to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Mykyta Fomin at 57.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 1–3 Mykyta Fomin Mykola Polysynskyi has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Fomin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1440 vs Fomin 1476
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 60% vs Fomin 40%
Polysynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -1 · Fomin -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Fomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 2.20 / Fomin 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Fomin)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13089228
Polysynskyi2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 20 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back21% 5 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Fomin1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 51 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it67% 38 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePolysynskyi1wins
AwayFomin3wins
2 of 4 to a deciderFomin leads 3–1, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi2Fomin2n = 4split evenly
S2Polysynskyi0Fomin4n = 4Fomin took 4 of 4
S3Polysynskyi1Fomin3n = 4Fomin took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away250%
These 4 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiFominP − FBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match32.041.8−9.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiFominBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 699 vs 270 / 55551.8%48.7%362 / 699 vs 270 / 555Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominPolysynskyi 2.20/Fomin 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polysynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 20 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—5850M. Fomin—1111113
LAug 17 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi—6650M. Fomin—1111113
LJun 18 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi—11811672M. Fomin—911611113
WJun 11 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—166611113M. Fomin—141111982
M. Polysynskyi10
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 26 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.73991171Y. Stepanchuk2.0011119113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83761151S. Pitsyk1.8311118113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113LAug 21 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.731110111152D. Kim2.00912137113LAug 21 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.50117119162H. Kulishov1.50911311183
M. Fomin10
LSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113LSep 4 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.61113811113M. Fomin2.2041111792WSep 4 · 24:05H. Kulishov1.737990M. Fomin2.001111113WSep 3 · 23:05M. Fomin2.25146119123D. Kim1.571211911102LSep 3 · 22:05A. Peretiatko1.8381111113M. Fomin1.83111981LSep 3 · 03:35M. Fomin1.9111751172H. Kulishov1.80711113113WSep 3 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.50761561M. Fomin2.50111113113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Fomin2.5011811123D. Kim1.509114101LSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141LSep 2 · 22:05M. Fomin1.57681121M. Skliar2.2511119113
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