TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015225
Played Aug 26Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911911119711––
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 78 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 54.0%
78 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 48–33 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Yaroslav Stepanchuk has won 33 of their 81 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polysynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-33 in 81
Polysynskyi
Wrong
gap of 15 in 81, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1413 vs Stepanchuk 1479
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 20% vs Stepanchuk 40%
Stepanchuk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Stepanchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -2 · Stepanchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Polysynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polysynskyi form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.73 / Stepanchuk 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Polysynskyi)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13015225
Polysynskyi1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 92 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Stepanchuk2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 44 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back18% 12 of 66
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi4wins
AwayStepanchuk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi60%3 of 5
AwayStepanchuk80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi5Stepanchuk5n = 10split evenly
S2Polysynskyi5Stepanchuk5n = 10split evenly
S3Polysynskyi3Stepanchuk7n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S4Polysynskyi4Stepanchuk5n = 9Stepanchuk took 5 of 9
S5Polysynskyi2Stepanchuk2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiStepanchukP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.740.6−2.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 709 vs 297 / 62452.1%47.6%369 / 709 vs 297 / 624Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.73/Stepanchuk 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 12 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi—9113101Y. Stepanchuk—11811123
WJun 19 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi—1111411113Y. Stepanchuk—96111392
LJun 16 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi—11371172Y. Stepanchuk—811112113
LJun 14 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi—1031161Y. Stepanchuk—12116113
LMay 15 · 03:35M. Polysynskyi—7121191Y. Stepanchuk—111013113
WMay 11 · 13:25M. Polysynskyi—31113113Y. Stepanchuk—1131161
LMay 8 · 03:35M. Polysynskyi—11811782Y. Stepanchuk—511711113
WMay 5 · 18:25M. Polysynskyi—115611113Y. Stepanchuk—91111782
WApr 29 · 03:25M. Polysynskyi—111110113Y. Stepanchuk—781261
LApr 22 · 02:35M. Polysynskyi—7380Y. Stepanchuk—1111113
M. Polysynskyi10
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 23 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83761151S. Pitsyk1.8311118113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113LAug 21 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.731110111152D. Kim2.00912137113LAug 21 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.50117119162H. Kulishov1.50911311183WAug 20 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi1.6111912113V. Sharpai2.207111041
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113
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