TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12476771
Played Aug 23Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711611118511––
Serhii Pitsyk
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:34 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Pitsyk to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Serhii Pitsyk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Serhii Pitsyk at 56.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 40–31 Serhii Pitsyk Serhii Pitsyk has won 31 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:34What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pitsyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-31 in 71
Polysynskyi
Wrong
gap of 9 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1413 vs Pitsyk 1506
Pitsyk
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Pitsyk 20%
Polysynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Pitsyk 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -1 · Pitsyk -4
Pitsyk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Pitsyk) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pitsyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.83 / Pitsyk 1.83
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Pitsyk)+10.0pp
Setka Cup · #12476771
Polysynskyi1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Pitsyk1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi5wins
AwayPitsyk5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi100%3 of 3
AwayPitsyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi3Pitsyk7n = 10Pitsyk took 7 of 10
S2Polysynskyi6Pitsyk4n = 10Polysynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Polysynskyi6Pitsyk4n = 10Polysynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Polysynskyi3Pitsyk4n = 7Pitsyk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiPitsykPolysynskyi − PitsykBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match34.938.1−3.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiPitsykBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 714 vs 309 / 58252.2%53.1%373 / 714 vs 309 / 582Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PitsykPolysynskyi 1.83/Pitsyk 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60%
Pitsyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pitsyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 3 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi—35130S. Pitsyk—1111153
WJul 12 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—711116113S. Pitsyk—11281182
WJun 25 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—11112113S. Pitsyk—881181
LJun 21 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—441151S. Pitsyk—11119113
LJun 16 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi—6101181S. Pitsyk—11128113
WJun 15 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—1114133S. Pitsyk—712110
LJun 10 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi—37120S. Pitsyk—1111143
WApr 23 · 03:35M. Polysynskyi—81113113S. Pitsyk—1151181
WApr 15 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—12119113S. Pitsyk—1061191
LApr 13 · 15:25M. Polysynskyi—101111552S. Pitsyk—125911113
M. Polysynskyi10
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 26 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.73991171Y. Stepanchuk2.0011119113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113LAug 21 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.731110111152D. Kim2.00912137113LAug 21 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.50117119162H. Kulishov1.50911311183WAug 20 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi1.6111912113V. Sharpai2.207111041
S. Pitsyk10
WSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 02:05S. Pitsyk1.911111113H. Kulishov1.806880LSep 7 · 01:05S. Pitsyk1.61135941A. Peretiatko2.20111111113WSep 6 · 23:35S. Pitsyk1.2891111113M. Skliar3.50119431LSep 6 · 21:35S. Pitsyk1.5013571162D. Kim2.501111118113WSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113WSep 4 · 02:35S. Pitsyk1.5011139113D. Kim2.507111151LSep 4 · 24:35A. Peretiatko2.381111113S. Pitsyk1.539740WSep 3 · 22:35H. Kulishov1.67711671S. Pitsyk2.1011811113LSep 3 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov2.0011115113S. Pitsyk1.73691181
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