TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462052
Played Aug 21Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11910121113117511
Dmitriy Kim
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:11 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Dmitriy Kim below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 100 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 54.7%
100 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 45–28 Dmitriy Kim Dmitriy Kim has won 28 of their 73 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:11What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Polysynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-28 in 73
Polysynskyi
Wrong
gap of 17 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1430 vs Kim 1488
Kim
Correct
both rated, 58 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Kim 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 50% vs Kim 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -1 · Kim -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Polysynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polysynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.73 / Kim 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Polysynskyi)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462052
Polysynskyi1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 96 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 71 of 94
Kim2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 150 of 333
Down 0–1, comes back34% 71 of 208
Down 0–2, comes back13% 13 of 103
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi5wins
AwayKim5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi50%3 of 6
AwayKim50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi6Kim4n = 10Polysynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Polysynskyi7Kim3n = 10Polysynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Polysynskyi4Kim6n = 10Kim took 6 of 10
S4Polysynskyi5Kim3n = 8Polysynskyi took 5 of 8
S5Polysynskyi0Kim3n = 3Kim took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiKimP − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.339.3+2.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiKimBasisWin rate · lifetime373 / 712 vs 484 / 101152.4%47.9%373 / 712 vs 484 / 1011Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.73/Kim 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kim won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 17 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—12118862D. Kim—1081111113
WAug 3 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—1111113D. Kim—7690
LJul 16 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi—1110511122D. Kim—812119143
WJun 28 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi—81111113D. Kim—113661
LJun 24 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi—1212108132D. Kim—10101211153
WJun 22 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—91111113D. Kim—113951
LJun 18 · 21:35M. Polysynskyi—8111271D. Kim—11714113
LJun 15 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi—6750D. Kim—1111113
WMay 14 · 22:05M. Polysynskyi—111113143D. Kim—7915121
WMay 13 · 04:05M. Polysynskyi—13811113D. Kim—1111941
M. Polysynskyi10
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 26 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.73991171Y. Stepanchuk2.0011119113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83761151S. Pitsyk1.8311118113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113LAug 21 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.50117119162H. Kulishov1.50911311183WAug 20 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi1.6111912113V. Sharpai2.207111041
D. Kim10
LSep 7 · 04:05H. Kulishov1.8011119153D. Kim1.916411131LSep 7 · 02:35D. Kim2.004101151A. Peretiatko1.7311129113WSep 7 · 24:35M. Skliar2.201081281D. Kim1.61121110113WSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113WSep 6 · 21:35S. Pitsyk1.5013571162D. Kim2.501111118113LSep 4 · 03:35A. Peretiatko1.7311611113D. Kim2.00711791LSep 4 · 02:35S. Pitsyk1.5011139113D. Kim2.507111151LSep 4 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.801111123D. Kim1.9164100LSep 3 · 23:05M. Fomin2.25146119123D. Kim1.571211911102LAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490
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