TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12462088
Played Aug 20Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1179111210114––
Viktor Sharpai
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Viktor Sharpai below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 75 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 54.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 51–43 Viktor Sharpai Viktor Sharpai has won 43 of their 94 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:14What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Polysynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
51-43 in 94
Polysynskyi
Correct
gap of 8 in 94, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1426 vs Sharpai 1376
Polysynskyi
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Sharpai 20%
Polysynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Sharpai 20%
Polysynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi -1 · Sharpai -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Polysynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sharpai form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.61 / Sharpai 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Polysynskyi)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #12462088
Polysynskyi1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 96 of 190
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 71 of 94
Sharpai2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog25% won 5 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back8% 1 of 12
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi7wins
AwaySharpai3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderPolysynskyi leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi80%4 of 5
AwaySharpai40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi5Sharpai5n = 10split evenly
S2Polysynskyi7Sharpai3n = 10Polysynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Polysynskyi7Sharpai3n = 10Polysynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Polysynskyi3Sharpai4n = 7Sharpai took 4 of 7
S5Polysynskyi3Sharpai1n = 4Polysynskyi took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiSharpaiP − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.336.9+2.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiSharpaiBasisWin rate · lifetime372 / 711 vs 273 / 57452.3%47.6%372 / 711 vs 273 / 574Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.61/Sharpai 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Polysynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi—712118113V. Sharpai—111081182
WAug 3 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi—11125113V. Sharpai—6101181
WFeb 24 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—911135113V. Sharpai—118111132
WFeb 20 · 01:55M. Polysynskyi—4131111113V. Sharpai—11157982
LFeb 17 · 17:55M. Polysynskyi—6111131V. Sharpai—11713113
WFeb 16 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi—1111113V. Sharpai—3590
LFeb 16 · 01:25M. Polysynskyi—47111192V. Sharpai—111163113
WFeb 13 · 01:55M. Polysynskyi—1111113V. Sharpai—8890
LFeb 10 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi—117941V. Sharpai—71111113
WFeb 9 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi—1411113V. Sharpai—12770
M. Polysynskyi10
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 26 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.73991171Y. Stepanchuk2.0011119113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83761151S. Pitsyk1.8311118113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113LAug 21 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.731110111152D. Kim2.00912137113LAug 21 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.50117119162H. Kulishov1.50911311183
V. Sharpai10
WSep 1 · 19:55A. Lifanov2.20911111182V. Sharpai1.61117913113WSep 1 · 18:55I. Elfemov2.2012670V. Sharpai1.611411113LSep 1 · 17:25V. Kaganovych2.0041111113V. Sharpai1.73115561WSep 1 · 15:25V. Hainiuk1.91971161V. Sharpai1.8011117113WSep 1 · 13:25V. Sydorenko3.4097130V. Sharpai1.301111153WAug 31 · 18:35V. Sharpai1.8351111113V. Kaganovych1.83119671LAug 31 · 17:05V. Sharpai1.50117481V. Chumak2.5091111113LAug 31 · 15:35V. Sharpai1.61311881V. Hainiuk2.2011911113LAug 31 · 14:05V. Sharpai1.36111761102F. Chashchin3.00719118113WAug 31 · 12:35V. Sharpai1.221111113R. Serhyenko4.009970
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