TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015190
Played Aug 27Finished
Mykola Polysynskyi
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171191311––––
Danylo Us
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeMykola Polysynskyi to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMykola Polysynskyi above · Danylo Us below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 62 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Mykola Polysynskyi at 56.8%
62 points played in total.
H2H Mykola Polysynskyi 32–20 Danylo Us Danylo Us has won 20 of their 52 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Polysynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-20 in 52
Polysynskyi
Correct
gap of 12 in 52, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polysynskyi 1435 vs Us 1417
Polysynskyi
Correct
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Us 20%
Polysynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polysynskyi 40% vs Us 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Polysynskyi +2 · Us +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Polysynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Us form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolysynskyi 1.67 / Us 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Polysynskyi)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13015190
Polysynskyi1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 92 of 186
Up 2–0, closes it90% 47 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it74% 69 of 93
Us2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 54 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolysynskyi6wins
AwayUs4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderPolysynskyi leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolysynskyi80%4 of 5
AwayUs60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polysynskyi5Us5n = 10split evenly
S2Polysynskyi5Us5n = 10split evenly
S3Polysynskyi8Us2n = 10Polysynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Polysynskyi2Us4n = 6Us took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolysynskyiUsP − UBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.036.4+1.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolysynskyiUsBasisWin rate · lifetime369 / 709 vs 201 / 48352.1%41.6%369 / 709 vs 201 / 483Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PolysynskyiPolysynskyi 1.67/Us 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Polysynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Polysynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 29 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi—1771112123D. Us—1511614102
LJun 17 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—2101291D. Us—111210113
WMay 14 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi—1111113D. Us—6990
WMay 6 · 22:05M. Polysynskyi—61311113D. Us—1111991
WMay 5 · 16:25M. Polysynskyi—1111113D. Us—8860
WApr 29 · 23:05M. Polysynskyi—51114113D. Us—1181261
LApr 27 · 18:25M. Polysynskyi—11990D. Us—1311113
LApr 20 · 17:25M. Polysynskyi—116581D. Us—41111113
WApr 16 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi—1111123D. Us—53100
LApr 8 · 17:25M. Polysynskyi—111211131D. Us—13149153
M. Polysynskyi10
LAug 27 · 03:05M. Polysynskyi1.57114139122Y. Sokoltsov2.256111111143WAug 27 · 24:05M. Polysynskyi1.731111113D. Kim2.009490WAug 26 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83111158133A. Peretiatko1.83891111112LAug 26 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.73991171Y. Stepanchuk2.0011119113LAug 23 · 22:35M. Polysynskyi1.83761151S. Pitsyk1.8311118113LAug 23 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi1.831171161A. Peretiatko1.8391113113WAug 21 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov2.3811681192M. Polysynskyi1.53911115113LAug 21 · 02:05M. Polysynskyi1.731110111152D. Kim2.00912137113LAug 21 · 01:05M. Polysynskyi2.50117119162H. Kulishov1.50911311183WAug 20 · 23:35M. Polysynskyi1.6111912113V. Sharpai2.207111041
D. Us10
WSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113WSep 3 · 02:05D. Us1.571111133M. Skliar2.2568110LSep 3 · 01:05D. Us2.2510570H. Kulishov1.571211113WSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141LSep 2 · 21:35D. Us1.91115411112D. Kim1.80911117133LAug 27 · 03:35D. Us2.504411101Y. Stepanchuk1.5011117123WAug 27 · 24:35D. Us1.67711811113A. Peretiatko2.1011611952LAug 26 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.6791411113D. Us2.101112561LAug 26 · 22:05D. Us1.917119121D. Kim1.8011811143LAug 25 · 03:35D. Kim1.8341113113D. Us1.831191171
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