TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13015163
Played Aug 27Finished
Danylo Us
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
4114111171012––
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Away
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:38 and never touched — 66.5% is still 66.5%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
66.5%
66.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDanylo Us above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 70 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 66.5%
70 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Us 18–29 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Danylo Us has won 18 of their 47 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stepanchuk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
18-29 in 47
Stepanchuk
Correct
gap of 11 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Us 1404 vs Stepanchuk 1500
Stepanchuk
Correct
both rated, 96 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Us 20% vs Stepanchuk 80%
Stepanchuk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Us 40% vs Stepanchuk 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Us -1 · Stepanchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stepanchuk)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUs 2.50 / Stepanchuk 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13015163
Us2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 54 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 74
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 42
Stepanchuk1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 94 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it70% 64 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUs2wins
AwayStepanchuk8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStepanchuk leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUs33.3%2 of 6
AwayStepanchuk100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Us6Stepanchuk4n = 10Us took 6 of 10
S2Us1Stepanchuk9n = 10Stepanchuk took 9 of 10
S3Us3Stepanchuk7n = 10Stepanchuk took 7 of 10
S4Us4Stepanchuk4n = 8split evenly
S5Us1Stepanchuk3n = 4Stepanchuk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricUsStepanchukU − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.041.9−5.9per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUsStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 484 vs 298 / 62441.5%47.8%201 / 484 vs 298 / 624Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukUs 2.50/Stepanchuk 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.1%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepanchuk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 01:35D. Us—11461192Y. Stepanchuk—911119113
LAug 10 · 02:35D. Us—412561Y. Stepanchuk—111011113
WAug 6 · 01:35D. Us—11711113Y. Stepanchuk—911731
LJul 6 · 23:05D. Us—811111162Y. Stepanchuk—111395113
LJun 16 · 21:35D. Us—55100Y. Stepanchuk—1111123
WJun 9 · 22:35D. Us—118511113Y. Stepanchuk—71111852
LJun 2 · 23:35D. Us—11911992Y. Stepanchuk—911911113
LMay 15 · 01:05D. Us—1110741Y. Stepanchuk—81211113
LMay 5 · 19:25D. Us—610110Y. Stepanchuk—1112133
LApr 26 · 04:05D. Us—116771Y. Stepanchuk—81111113
D. Us10
WSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113WSep 3 · 02:05D. Us1.571111133M. Skliar2.2568110LSep 3 · 01:05D. Us2.2510570H. Kulishov1.571211113WSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141LSep 2 · 21:35D. Us1.91115411112D. Kim1.80911117133LAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:35D. Us1.67711811113A. Peretiatko2.1011611952LAug 26 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.6791411113D. Us2.101112561LAug 26 · 22:05D. Us1.917119121D. Kim1.8011811143LAug 25 · 03:35D. Kim1.8341113113D. Us1.831191171
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113LSep 2 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk5.503660K. Hrynenko1.131111113WSep 1 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi1.83101161132Y. Stepanchuk1.83129116113LSep 1 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk3.251110381D. Derevynskyi1.3391211113
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