TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061381
Played Sep 2Finished
Danylo Us
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1172018511114––
Mykyta Fomin
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:43 and never touched — 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeMykyta Fomin to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingDanylo Us above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 20-18
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 87 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Mykyta Fomin at 65.7%
87 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Us 3–4 Mykyta Fomin Danylo Us has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:43What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Us 1388 vs Fomin 1470
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Us 20% vs Fomin 60%
Fomin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Us 30% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Us -3 · Fomin -2
Us
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Fomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Us form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUs 2.50 / Fomin 1.50
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Fomin)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13061381
Us2.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 52 of 138
Down 0–1, comes back18% 14 of 76
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 43
Fomin1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 56 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it81% 29 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it69% 43 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeUs3wins
AwayFomin4wins
1 of 7 to a deciderFomin leads 4–3, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUsn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayFomin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Us1Fomin6n = 7Fomin took 6 of 7
S2Us2Fomin5n = 7Fomin took 5 of 7
S3Us3Fomin4n = 7Fomin took 4 of 7
S4Us3Fomin1n = 4Us took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricUsFominU − FBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set16−5of 7Avg pointsper match32.637.4−4.8per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUsFominBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 475 vs 266 / 54641.7%48.7%198 / 475 vs 266 / 546Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominUs 2.50/Fomin 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Us won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 25 · 02:35D. Us—7670M. Fomin—1111113
WAug 5 · 22:05D. Us—71111113M. Fomin—118791
LJul 10 · 04:05D. Us—87110M. Fomin—1111133
LJun 23 · 24:35D. Us—9116101M. Fomin—11511123
WJun 18 · 02:35D. Us—481111123M. Fomin—111189102
WJun 4 · 21:05D. Us—11512113M. Fomin—9111081
LApr 9 · 23:35D. Us—4980M. Fomin—1111113
D. Us10
WSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113WSep 3 · 02:05D. Us1.571111133M. Skliar2.2568110LSep 3 · 01:05D. Us2.2510570H. Kulishov1.571211113LSep 2 · 21:35D. Us1.91115411112D. Kim1.80911117133LAug 27 · 03:35D. Us2.504411101Y. Stepanchuk1.5011117123LAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:35D. Us1.67711811113A. Peretiatko2.1011611952LAug 26 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.6791411113D. Us2.101112561LAug 26 · 22:05D. Us1.917119121D. Kim1.8011811143LAug 25 · 03:35D. Kim1.8341113113D. Us1.831191171
M. Fomin10
LSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113LSep 4 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.61113811113M. Fomin2.2041111792WSep 4 · 24:05H. Kulishov1.737990M. Fomin2.001111113WSep 3 · 23:05M. Fomin2.25146119123D. Kim1.571211911102LSep 3 · 22:05A. Peretiatko1.8381111113M. Fomin1.83111981LSep 3 · 03:35M. Fomin1.9111751172H. Kulishov1.80711113113WSep 3 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.50761561M. Fomin2.50111113113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Fomin2.5011811123D. Kim1.509114101LSep 2 · 22:05M. Fomin1.57681121M. Skliar2.2511119113LSep 1 · 03:35M. Fomin2.257990D. Kim1.571111113
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