TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13061164
Played Sep 3Finished
Yevhenii Sokoltsov
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7116111513611––
Mykyta Fomin
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:53 and never touched — 66.0% is still 66.0%
Graded at full timeYevhenii Sokoltsov to win
66.0%
66.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingYevhenii Sokoltsov above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 15-13
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 80 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Yevhenii Sokoltsov at 66.0%
80 points played in total.
H2H Yevhenii Sokoltsov 20–5 Mykyta Fomin Mykyta Fomin has won 5 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:53What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sokoltsov
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-5 in 25
Sokoltsov
Wrong
gap of 15 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sokoltsov 1500 vs Fomin 1470
Sokoltsov
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sokoltsov 40% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sokoltsov 50% vs Fomin 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sokoltsov +1 · Fomin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Sokoltsov) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sokoltsov form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSokoltsov 1.50 / Fomin 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Sokoltsov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13061164
Sokoltsov1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 88 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it98% 50 of 51
Up 1–0, closes it76% 68 of 89
Fomin2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 91 of 233
Down 0–1, comes back23% 28 of 122
Down 0–2, comes back11% 9 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSokoltsov7wins
AwayFomin3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSokoltsov leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSokoltsov100%7 of 7
AwayFomin100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sokoltsov7Fomin3n = 10Sokoltsov took 7 of 10
S2Sokoltsov3Fomin7n = 10Fomin took 7 of 10
S3Sokoltsov7Fomin3n = 10Sokoltsov took 7 of 10
S4Sokoltsov4Fomin2n = 6Sokoltsov took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSokoltsovFominS − FBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.233.5+2.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSokoltsovFominBasisWin rate · lifetime250 / 514 vs 268 / 54948.6%48.8%250 / 514 vs 268 / 549Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SokoltsovSokoltsov 1.50/Fomin 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Sokoltsov · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fomin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov—761561M. Fomin—111113113
WAug 25 · 04:05Y. Sokoltsov—11911113M. Fomin—511771
LAug 20 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov—7390M. Fomin—1111113
WAug 13 · 02:35Y. Sokoltsov—1111113M. Fomin—8960
WAug 11 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov—111594113M. Fomin—513111192
WAug 7 · 03:35Y. Sokoltsov—11911113M. Fomin—511341
WJul 20 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov—11911113M. Fomin—511791
WJul 14 · 04:05Y. Sokoltsov—1113113M. Fomin—81170
LJun 29 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov—85100M. Fomin—1111123
WJun 26 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov—12712113M. Fomin—10111081
Y. Sokoltsov10
LSep 4 · 03:05H. Kulishov1.441111113Y. Sokoltsov2.639590WSep 4 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.61113811113M. Fomin2.2041111792WSep 4 · 01:05Y. Sokoltsov1.801111123D. Kim1.9164100WSep 3 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.611111113A. Peretiatko2.204970WSep 3 · 21:35Y. Sokoltsov2.0011115113S. Pitsyk1.73691181LSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113WSep 3 · 24:05Y. Sokoltsov1.361011611113M. Skliar3.0012711962LSep 2 · 22:35Y. Sokoltsov1.80561111102D. Kim1.91111179123LSep 2 · 21:05Y. Sokoltsov2.631210781H. Kulishov1.44101211113WAug 31 · 19:25Y. Sokoltsov2.101111113D. Rehotun1.676540
M. Fomin10
LSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113LSep 4 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.61113811113M. Fomin2.2041111792WSep 4 · 24:05H. Kulishov1.737990M. Fomin2.001111113WSep 3 · 23:05M. Fomin2.25146119123D. Kim1.571211911102LSep 3 · 22:05A. Peretiatko1.8381111113M. Fomin1.83111981LSep 3 · 03:35M. Fomin1.9111751172H. Kulishov1.80711113113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Fomin2.5011811123D. Kim1.509114101LSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141LSep 2 · 22:05M. Fomin1.57681121M. Skliar2.2511119113LSep 1 · 03:35M. Fomin2.257990D. Kim1.571111113
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