TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089227
Played Sep 7Finished
Danylo Us
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191191311––––
Mykyta Fomin
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:30 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeMykyta Fomin to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDanylo Us above · Mykyta Fomin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 64 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Mykyta Fomin at 56.6%
64 points played in total.
H2H Danylo Us 5–4 Mykyta Fomin Mykyta Fomin has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:30What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fomin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Us 1430 vs Fomin 1448
Fomin
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Us 60% vs Fomin 40%
Us
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Us 40% vs Fomin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Us -1 · Fomin -3
Fomin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Fomin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fomin form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUs 2.10 / Fomin 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Fomin)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089227
Us2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 53 of 140
Down 0–1, comes back20% 15 of 77
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 45
Fomin1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 51 of 94
Up 2–0, closes it79% 26 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it67% 38 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeUs5wins
AwayFomin4wins
1 of 9 to a deciderUs leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUs100%3 of 3
AwayFomin66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Us3Fomin6n = 9Fomin took 6 of 9
S2Us4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S3Us4Fomin5n = 9Fomin took 5 of 9
S4Us4Fomin1n = 5Us took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home333%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricUsFominU − FBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match34.436.8−2.4per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUsFominBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 477 vs 270 / 55741.9%48.5%200 / 477 vs 270 / 557Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.636.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FominUs 2.10/Fomin 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Fomin · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Us won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 7 · 23:05D. Us—1111133M. Fomin—99110
WSep 2 · 23:35D. Us—11205113M. Fomin—7181141
LAug 25 · 02:35D. Us—7670M. Fomin—1111113
WAug 5 · 22:05D. Us—71111113M. Fomin—118791
LJul 10 · 04:05D. Us—87110M. Fomin—1111133
LJun 23 · 24:35D. Us—9116101M. Fomin—11511123
WJun 18 · 02:35D. Us—481111123M. Fomin—111189102
WJun 4 · 21:05D. Us—11512113M. Fomin—9111081
LApr 9 · 23:35D. Us—4980M. Fomin—1111113
D. Us10
LSep 7 · 22:05D. Kim1.80101311113D. Us1.911211771WSep 3 · 03:05Y. Sokoltsov1.6111116982D. Us2.20441111113WSep 3 · 02:05D. Us1.571111133M. Skliar2.2568110LSep 3 · 01:05D. Us2.2510570H. Kulishov1.571211113WSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141LSep 2 · 21:35D. Us1.91115411112D. Kim1.80911117133LAug 27 · 03:35D. Us2.504411101Y. Stepanchuk1.5011117123LAug 27 · 01:35M. Polysynskyi1.671111133D. Us2.1079110WAug 27 · 24:35D. Us1.67711811113A. Peretiatko2.1011611952LAug 26 · 23:35Y. Sokoltsov1.6791411113D. Us2.101112561
M. Fomin10
LSep 7 · 21:05M. Polysynskyi2.2011711113M. Fomin1.61811791LSep 4 · 04:05M. Fomin2.75712481S. Pitsyk1.40111011113LSep 4 · 02:05Y. Sokoltsov1.61113811113M. Fomin2.2041111792WSep 4 · 24:05H. Kulishov1.737990M. Fomin2.001111113WSep 3 · 23:05M. Fomin2.25146119123D. Kim1.571211911102LSep 3 · 22:05A. Peretiatko1.8381111113M. Fomin1.83111981LSep 3 · 03:35M. Fomin1.9111751172H. Kulishov1.80711113113WSep 3 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.50761561M. Fomin2.50111113113WSep 3 · 24:35M. Fomin2.5011811123D. Kim1.509114101LSep 2 · 23:35D. Us2.5011205113M. Fomin1.507181141
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