TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100965
Played Sep 9Finished
Mykhailo Skliar
Home
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611118119311112
Yaroslav Stepanchuk
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 69.1% is still 69.1%
Graded at full timeYaroslav Stepanchuk to win
69.1%
69.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMykhailo Skliar above · Yaroslav Stepanchuk below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-2
Point 83 set 5, 11-2 — our read held Yaroslav Stepanchuk at 69.1%
83 points played in total.
H2H Mykhailo Skliar 0–1 Yaroslav Stepanchuk Mykhailo Skliar has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Stepanchuk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Skliar 1354 vs Stepanchuk 1474
Stepanchuk
Wrong
both rated, 121 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skliar 20% vs Stepanchuk 60%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skliar 10% vs Stepanchuk 50%
Stepanchuk
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Skliar +1 · Stepanchuk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Stepanchuk) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepanchuk form (60%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkliar 3.40 / Stepanchuk 1.30
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Stepanchuk)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13100965
Skliar3.40
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog24% won 14 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back16% 5 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Stepanchuk1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite51% won 89 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it88% 42 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it70% 59 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSkliar0wins
AwayStepanchuk1wins
Stepanchuk leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSkliarStepanchukSkliar − StepanchukBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match27.042.0−15.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkliarStepanchukBasisWin rate · lifetime58 / 115 vs 294 / 61550.4%47.8%58 / 115 vs 294 / 615Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepanchukSkliar 3.40/Stepanchuk 1.30
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Stepanchuk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skliar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 7 · 01:35M. Skliar—111961Y. Stepanchuk—91111113
M. Skliar10
LSep 10 · 01:05M. Skliar2.501210111182D. Kim1.50141299113WSep 9 · 21:35M. Skliar1.911011211113M. Fomin1.8012811252LSep 7 · 03:35M. Skliar2.759770A. Peretiatko1.401111113LSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961LSep 7 · 24:35M. Skliar2.201081281D. Kim1.61121110113LSep 6 · 23:35S. Pitsyk1.2891111113M. Skliar3.50119431LSep 6 · 22:05M. Skliar3.7536100H. Kulishov1.251111123LSep 3 · 04:05M. Skliar1.916670D. Kim1.801111113LSep 3 · 02:05D. Us1.571111133M. Skliar2.2568110LSep 3 · 24:05Y. Sokoltsov1.361011611113M. Skliar3.0012711962
Y. Stepanchuk10
LSep 10 · 01:35Y. Sokoltsov1.91912211113Y. Stepanchuk1.80111011792LSep 10 · 24:35Y. Stepanchuk1.67111141062M. Fomin2.10361112113WSep 9 · 22:05Y. Stepanchuk1.91111011113H. Kulishov1.80712591LSep 7 · 03:05Y. Stepanchuk2.75912101142S. Pitsyk1.401110125113WSep 7 · 01:35Y. Stepanchuk1.6191111113M. Skliar2.20111961WSep 7 · 24:05Y. Stepanchuk2.1031111113H. Kulishov1.67118991LSep 6 · 22:35Y. Stepanchuk1.73861191D. Kim2.0011113113LSep 6 · 21:05Y. Stepanchuk1.73911101192A. Peretiatko2.00112127113LSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 01:35O. Melashenko1.3611661192Y. Stepanchuk3.00711116113
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