TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100703
Played Sep 9Finished
Daniil Habrelyan
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118113811711
Oleksii Nadporozhskyi
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeDaniil Habrelyan to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDaniil Habrelyan above · Oleksii Nadporozhskyi below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Daniil Habrelyan at 57.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Daniil Habrelyan 1–0 Oleksii Nadporozhskyi Oleksii Nadporozhskyi has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:09What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Habrelyan
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Habrelyan 1567 vs Nadporozhskyi 1451
Habrelyan
Wrong
both rated, 116 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Habrelyan 60% vs Nadporozhskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Habrelyan 50% vs Nadporozhskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Habrelyan -1 · Nadporozhskyi -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Habrelyan)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Nadporozhskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHabrelyan 1.61 / Nadporozhskyi 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Habrelyan)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13100703
Habrelyan1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 21 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 17 of 22
Nadporozhskyi2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHabrelyan1wins
AwayNadporozhskyi0wins
Habrelyan leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHabrelyanNadporozhskyiH − NBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.036.0+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHabrelyanNadporozhskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime194 / 413 vs 46 / 14147%32.6%194 / 413 vs 46 / 141Avg sets wonper match1.91.7per matchAvg pointsper match36.236.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HabrelyanHabrelyan 1.61/Nadporozhskyi 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Habrelyan · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nadporozhskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 3 · 12:40D. Habrelyan—11613113O. Nadporozhskyi—6111181
D. Habrelyan10
LSep 9 · 15:10V. Merzlikin1.571112113D. Habrelyan2.2591070WSep 9 · 14:10D. Habrelyan1.501111143Y. Holoborodko2.5068120LSep 9 · 13:10Y. Bondarenko1.531111113D. Habrelyan2.388730WSep 9 · 11:40D. Habrelyan2.1011119113M. Tiutiunnyk1.67681151WSep 8 · 10:30Y. Volkov2.103690D. Habrelyan1.671111113LSep 8 · 08:30D. Habrelyan1.44119911112O. Karpenko2.63811119133LSep 8 · 07:00D. Habrelyan2.1011691192M. Tiutiunnyk1.67211117113WSep 8 · 05:00D. Habrelyan1.571111123Y. Holoborodko2.2586100LSep 3 · 17:10M. Tiutiunnyk1.571011115113D. Habrelyan2.2512781162WSep 3 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.2511651192D. Habrelyan1.57711119113
O. Nadporozhskyi10
LSep 9 · 16:10Y. Holoborodko2.00139711113O. Nadporozhskyi1.73111111772WSep 9 · 14:40Y. Bondarenko1.739890O. Nadporozhskyi2.001111113LSep 9 · 12:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.0011126113O. Nadporozhskyi1.739101161WSep 9 · 10:40V. Merzlikin2.205370O. Nadporozhskyi1.611111113WSep 3 · 17:40O. Nadporozhskyi2.1041112113Y. Holoborodko1.671171091LSep 3 · 15:40O. Kuzyshyn2.2081111113O. Nadporozhskyi1.61116221WSep 3 · 13:40O. Zhyrnov1.6111951282O. Nadporozhskyi2.204111110113LSep 3 · 12:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.836111181D. Habrelyan1.8311613113WSep 3 · 11:40M. Tiutiunnyk2.001211910102O. Nadporozhskyi1.731091112123WAug 6 · 16:40O. Nadporozhskyi1.911111123M. Tiutiunnyk1.8078100
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