TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086462
Played Sep 6Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.41
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51112101214611––
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
2.55
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
51112101214611––
H2H Marcin Stepien 62–56 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 56 of their 118 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:48What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.41 (64%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-56 in 118
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 6 in 118, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1664 vs Molka 1575
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Molka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 60% vs Molka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -1 · Molka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (39%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.41 / Molka 2.55
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Stepien)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13086462
Stepien1.41
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it94% 137 of 146
Up 1–0, closes it81% 161 of 200
Molka2.55
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 180 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien5wins
AwayMolka5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien71.4%5 of 7
AwayMolka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien7Molka3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S2Stepien4Molka6n = 10Molka took 6 of 10
S3Stepien7Molka3n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Stepien3Molka5n = 8Molka took 5 of 8
S5Stepien2Molka3n = 5Molka took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienMolkaS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.941.1+1.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime648 / 1177 vs 526 / 115855.1%45.4%648 / 1177 vs 526 / 1158Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.41/Molka 2.55
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.6%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 16:35M. Stepien—1111113B. Molka—8690
LAug 24 · 13:30M. Stepien—111511742B. Molka—717911113
LAug 24 · 08:30M. Stepien—118781B. Molka—61111113
LAug 23 · 20:35M. Stepien—111111772B. Molka—136911113
WAug 21 · 10:30M. Stepien—111111113B. Molka—461351
WAug 20 · 11:30M. Stepien—1312123B. Molka—1110100
LAug 17 · 05:30M. Stepien—188111142B. Molka—201194113
WAug 16 · 16:35M. Stepien—1191011113B. Molka—91112392
LAug 14 · 13:40M. Stepien—1051171B. Molka—12119113
WAug 14 · 11:00M. Stepien—118118113B. Molka—61181172
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113WSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
B. Molka10
WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113LSep 5 · 14:45B. Molka1.82911991S. Radlo1.8211911113WSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171WSep 5 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.42711871B. Molka2.5011611113LSep 5 · 09:35B. Molka1.651211911112S. Wloszek2.10149118133
Upcoming Matches
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