TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13090075
Played Sep 7Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
2.01
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12104119111181412
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.66
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:22 and never touched — 58.7% is still 58.7%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
58.7%
58.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
102 points played in total.
Set by set
12104119111181412
H2H Michal Lysakowski 102–125 Marcin Stepien Michal Lysakowski has won 102 of their 227 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:22What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (55%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
102-125 in 227
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 23 in 227, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1649 vs Stepien 1663
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 40% vs Stepien 80%
Stepien
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 40% vs Stepien 70%
Stepien
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +1 · Stepien +3
Stepien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 2.01 / Stepien 1.66
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Stepien)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13090075
Lysakowski2.01
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 101 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 54
Stepien1.66
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 202 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it94% 140 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it81% 164 of 203
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski7wins
AwayStepien3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayStepien50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski6Stepien4n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Lysakowski4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski7Stepien3n = 10Lysakowski took 7 of 10
S4Lysakowski4Stepien3n = 7Lysakowski took 4 of 7
S5Lysakowski3Stepien1n = 4Lysakowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiStepienL − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.039.9+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime642 / 1317 vs 649 / 117948.8%55.1%642 / 1317 vs 649 / 1179Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienLysakowski 2.01/Stepien 1.66
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.2%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski—124911143M. Stepien—1011118122
WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski—1113113M. Stepien—81180
WSep 1 · 13:30M. Lysakowski—1111133M. Stepien—78110
LSep 1 · 10:30M. Lysakowski—9114141M. Stepien—11711163
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Lysakowski—912128113M. Stepien—1110101142
WAug 30 · 21:05M. Lysakowski—11911113M. Stepien—911941
LAug 25 · 08:00M. Lysakowski—910110M. Stepien—1112133
LAug 18 · 13:40M. Lysakowski—11511972M. Stepien—811911113
WAug 18 · 06:00M. Lysakowski—791111113M. Stepien—11118892
WAug 17 · 11:00M. Lysakowski—111011143M. Stepien—5128121
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113LSep 4 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2.009470P. Gola1.721111113LSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 08:00S. Radlo2.54911118113M. Lysakowski1.4611771192WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski2.101113113M. Stepien1.6581180WSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113WSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111LSep 3 · 11:30M. Ovcharenko1.6011711113M. Lysakowski2.10711411LSep 3 · 10:30S. Radlo2.37116711113M. Lysakowski1.5271111992LSep 3 · 09:00S. Wloszek2.701111810113M. Lysakowski1.3892111262
M. Stepien10
WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113LSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski2.101113113M. Stepien1.6581180
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