TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13075712
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Lysakowski
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181311118––––
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.65
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:40 and never touched — 55.0% is still 55.0%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
55.0%
55.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
62 points played in total.
Set by set
1181311118––––
H2H Michal Lysakowski 101–125 Marcin Stepien Michal Lysakowski has won 101 of their 226 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Stepien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
101-125 in 226
Stepien
Wrong
gap of 24 in 226, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lysakowski 1637 vs Stepien 1664
Stepien
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lysakowski 40% vs Stepien 60%
Stepien
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lysakowski 60% vs Stepien 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lysakowski +2 · Stepien -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLysakowski 2.10 / Stepien 1.65
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Stepien)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13075712
Lysakowski2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 101 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 101
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 54
Stepien1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it94% 137 of 146
Up 1–0, closes it81% 161 of 200
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLysakowski6wins
AwayStepien4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLysakowski80%4 of 5
AwayStepien60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lysakowski5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S2Lysakowski4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Lysakowski8Stepien2n = 10Lysakowski took 8 of 10
S4Lysakowski3Stepien4n = 7Stepien took 4 of 7
S5Lysakowski2Stepien1n = 3Lysakowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLysakowskiStepienL − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match41.039.3+1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLysakowskiStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime642 / 1321 vs 649 / 117848.6%55.1%642 / 1321 vs 649 / 1178Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienLysakowski 2.10/Stepien 1.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.4%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski—1113113M. Stepien—81180
WSep 1 · 13:30M. Lysakowski—1111133M. Stepien—78110
LSep 1 · 10:30M. Lysakowski—9114141M. Stepien—11711163
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Lysakowski—912128113M. Stepien—1110101142
WAug 30 · 21:05M. Lysakowski—11911113M. Stepien—911941
LAug 25 · 08:00M. Lysakowski—910110M. Stepien—1112133
LAug 18 · 13:40M. Lysakowski—11511972M. Stepien—811911113
WAug 18 · 06:00M. Lysakowski—791111113M. Stepien—11118892
WAug 17 · 11:00M. Lysakowski—111011143M. Stepien—5128121
LAug 16 · 20:35M. Lysakowski—1091471M. Stepien—121112113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113LSep 4 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2.009470P. Gola1.721111113LSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 08:00S. Radlo2.54911118113M. Lysakowski1.4611771192WSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113WSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111LSep 3 · 11:30M. Ovcharenko1.6011711113M. Lysakowski2.10711411LSep 3 · 10:30S. Radlo2.37116711113M. Lysakowski1.5271111992
M. Stepien10
WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien1.361113113M. Burkacki2.8071160LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113
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