TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089060
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Masternak
Home
3.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911411611––––
Marcin Stepien
Away
1.30
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
52 points played in total.
Set by set
911411611––––
H2H Jan Masternak 40–95 Marcin Stepien Jan Masternak has won 40 of their 135 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
40-95 in 135
Stepien
Correct
gap of 55 in 135, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Masternak 1506 vs Stepien 1656
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Masternak 20% vs Stepien 40%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Masternak 30% vs Stepien 50%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Masternak +1 · Stepien +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMasternak 3.30 / Stepien 1.30
Signal prob.24% / 76%
Edge (Stepien)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13089060
Masternak3.30
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 120 of 291
Down 0–1, comes back24% 39 of 164
Down 0–2, comes back8% 8 of 104
Stepien1.30
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it94% 137 of 146
Up 1–0, closes it81% 161 of 200
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMasternak4wins
AwayStepien6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMasternak60%3 of 5
AwayStepien80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Masternak5Stepien5n = 10split evenly
S2Masternak4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Masternak3Stepien7n = 10Stepien took 7 of 10
S4Masternak4Stepien3n = 7Masternak took 4 of 7
S5Masternak1Stepien2n = 3Stepien took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasternakStepienM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match33.439.1−5.7per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasternakStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime433 / 992 vs 647 / 117643.7%55%433 / 992 vs 647 / 1176Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienMasternak 3.30/Stepien 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.7%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 06:30J. Masternak—6510M. Stepien—1111113
WAug 30 · 15:05J. Masternak—71111113M. Stepien—119891
LAug 27 · 06:30J. Masternak—111197152M. Stepien—991111173
LAug 24 · 06:00J. Masternak—2720M. Stepien—1111113
LAug 21 · 13:30J. Masternak—11891102M. Stepien—811119113
WAug 21 · 11:30J. Masternak—11411113M. Stepien—911671
WAug 20 · 09:30J. Masternak—11411123M. Stepien—4117101
WAug 16 · 23:45J. Masternak—111199113M. Stepien—28111172
LAug 16 · 22:05J. Masternak—8117111M. Stepien—11911133
LAug 14 · 05:30J. Masternak—3850M. Stepien—1111113
J. Masternak10
LSep 6 · 22:35J. Masternak—1111138102D. Stapor—741511123WSep 6 · 19:35J. Masternak2.301111113D. Stapor1.504970LSep 6 · 18:05J. Masternak1.831071551S. Wloszek1.83121113113LSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113LSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113LSep 5 · 14:15D. Skvarskyi1.5711915113J. Masternak2.288111361WSep 5 · 13:05J. Masternak1.90115911163S. Wloszek1.76811118142LSep 5 · 11:05S. Radlo1.601214113J. Masternak2.10101290LSep 5 · 09:05D. Skvarskyi1.41971111133J. Masternak2.70111168112WSep 5 · 08:05J. Masternak1.751114113D. Stapor1.9531260
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113WSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
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