TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088615
Played Sep 6Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
2.27
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811511––––
Maksim Ovcharenko
Away
1.52
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:46 and never touched — 62.6% is still 62.6%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
62.6%
62.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
811811511––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 3–8 Maksim Ovcharenko Marcin Stepien has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:46What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1658 vs Ovcharenko 1721
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 63 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Ovcharenko 80%
Ovcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 50% vs Ovcharenko 70%
Ovcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien +1 · Ovcharenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 2.27 / Ovcharenko 1.52
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13088615
Stepien2.27
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 35 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 17
Ovcharenko1.52
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 25 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien3wins
AwayOvcharenko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien66.7%2 of 3
AwayOvcharenko85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien3Ovcharenko7n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Stepien5Ovcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Stepien5Ovcharenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Stepien2Ovcharenko3n = 5Ovcharenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienOvcharenkoS − OBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match32.335.6−3.3per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienOvcharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime646 / 1174 vs 101 / 16355%62%646 / 1174 vs 101 / 163Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoStepien 2.27/Ovcharenko 1.52
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.1%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 13:30M. Stepien—341181M. Ovcharenko—11116113
WSep 4 · 09:00M. Stepien—81111113M. Ovcharenko—114761
LFeb 28 · 13:05M. Stepien—89110M. Ovcharenko—1111133
LFeb 24 · 07:00M. Stepien—671461M. Ovcharenko—111112113
WFeb 23 · 09:00M. Stepien—1111113M. Ovcharenko—6590
WFeb 20 · 11:00M. Stepien—1111113M. Ovcharenko—9790
LFeb 16 · 14:10M. Stepien—6590M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 16 · 10:00M. Stepien—81191182M. Ovcharenko—114118113
LFeb 15 · 22:05M. Stepien—7450M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LFeb 10 · 10:30M. Stepien—111115362M. Ovcharenko—771711113
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113WSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492
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