TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089776
Played Sep 6Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111210211811––
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
2.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
72 points played in total.
Set by set
7111210211811––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 8–5 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Ovcharenko beat Molka 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.38 / Molka 2.65
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13089776
Ovcharenko1.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite74% won 25 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Molka2.65
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 180 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko7wins
AwayMolka3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko100%6 of 6
AwayMolka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko6Molka4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Ovcharenko6Molka4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Ovcharenko7Molka3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S4Ovcharenko1Molka2n = 3Molka took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoMolkaO − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.028.6+4.4per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime104 / 167 vs 531 / 116462.3%45.6%104 / 167 vs 531 / 1164Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.38/Molka 2.65
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
69%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko—712281B. Molka—111011113
WSep 6 · 20:35M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—9540
WFeb 28 · 14:45M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—8440
WFeb 28 · 10:35M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—4660
WFeb 27 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko—1171110113B. Molka—71141272
WFeb 21 · 10:05M. Ovcharenko—381112113B. Molka—111181032
WFeb 20 · 13:40M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—8780
WFeb 20 · 08:00M. Ovcharenko—1111113B. Molka—7650
LFeb 19 · 12:30M. Ovcharenko—7260B. Molka—1111113
LFeb 16 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko—78110B. Molka—1111133
M. Ovcharenko10
WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492
B. Molka10
WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113WSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 5 · 14:45B. Molka1.82911991S. Radlo1.8211911113WSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171WSep 5 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.42711871B. Molka2.5011611113LSep 5 · 09:35B. Molka1.651211911112S. Wloszek2.10149118133
Upcoming Matches
M. Ovcharenko
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B. Molka
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