TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088516
Played Sep 6Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
1.69
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111012511––––
Bartlomiej Molka
Away
1.97
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Molka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
54 points played in total.
Set by set
5111012511––––
H2H Dawid Stapor 45–26 Bartlomiej Molka Bartlomiej Molka has won 26 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:15What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.69 (54%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-26 in 71
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 19 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1505 vs Molka 1598
Molka
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Molka 80%
Molka
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 30% vs Molka 60%
Molka
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -2 · Molka +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Molka form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.69 / Molka 1.97
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Molka)-0.2pp
TT Cup · #13088516
Stapor1.69
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 177 of 292
Up 2–0, closes it99% 89 of 90
Up 1–0, closes it86% 132 of 154
Molka1.97
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 180 of 410
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 231
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 133
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayMolka5wins
Level at 5–5.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%3 of 3
AwayMolka71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor3Molka7n = 10Molka took 7 of 10
S2Stapor6Molka4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stapor6Molka4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Stapor4Molka4n = 8split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMolkaS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.737.6−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMolkaBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 907 vs 528 / 116053%45.5%481 / 907 vs 528 / 1160Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.69/Molka 1.97
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Molka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 12:35D. Stapor—9121171B. Molka—11147113
WSep 2 · 13:10D. Stapor—1113113B. Molka—81190
WSep 2 · 11:00D. Stapor—81512113B. Molka—11131081
LAug 28 · 10:30D. Stapor—13113111B. Molka—15611133
WAug 23 · 23:35D. Stapor—71111113B. Molka—117971
LAug 23 · 22:05D. Stapor—671151B. Molka—11119113
WAug 21 · 06:30D. Stapor—111112113B. Molka—591491
LAug 19 · 08:30D. Stapor—6960B. Molka—1111113
WJul 31 · 11:30D. Stapor—11711113B. Molka—711481
LJul 29 · 07:30D. Stapor—811871B. Molka—11911113
D. Stapor10
WSep 6 · 22:35J. Masternak—1111138102D. Stapor—741511123LSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113LSep 6 · 19:35J. Masternak2.301111113D. Stapor1.504970LSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 17:05D. Stapor1.601081171S. Wloszek2.1012115113WSep 5 · 13:45S. Wloszek1.98111161052D. Stapor1.73881112113LSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171LSep 5 · 11:35S. Wloszek1.9511713113D. Stapor1.779111191LSep 5 · 10:05S. Radlo2.00131211113D. Stapor1.711510871LSep 5 · 08:05J. Masternak1.751114113D. Stapor1.9531260
B. Molka10
WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113WSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 5 · 14:45B. Molka1.82911991S. Radlo1.8211911113WSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171WSep 5 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.42711871B. Molka2.5011611113LSep 5 · 09:35B. Molka1.651211911112S. Wloszek2.10149118133
Upcoming Matches
D. Stapor
Nothing scheduled
B. Molka
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