TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089059
Played Sep 6Finished
Dawid Stapor
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911611––––
Maksim Ovcharenko
Away
1.27
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:53 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
311911611––––
H2H Dawid Stapor 5–5 Maksim Ovcharenko Dead even across their 10 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.27 (72%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-5 in 10
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1481 vs Ovcharenko 1743
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 262 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 20% vs Ovcharenko 80%
Ovcharenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 10% vs Ovcharenko 80%
Ovcharenko
Correct
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -4 · Ovcharenko +2
Stapor
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 3.25 / Ovcharenko 1.27
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13089059
Stapor3.25
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog53% won 47 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back29% 13 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Ovcharenko1.27
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 25 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor5wins
AwayOvcharenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor75%3 of 4
AwayOvcharenko66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S2Stapor4Ovcharenko6n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S3Stapor6Ovcharenko4n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Stapor1Ovcharenko3n = 4Ovcharenko took 3 of 4
S5Stapor2Ovcharenko1n = 3Stapor took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporOvcharenkoS − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.434.9−2.5per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporOvcharenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime481 / 909 vs 103 / 16552.9%62.4%481 / 909 vs 103 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoStapor 3.25/Ovcharenko 1.27
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.7%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LFeb 25 · 09:00D. Stapor—7830M. Ovcharenko—1111113
WFeb 24 · 09:00D. Stapor—1111113M. Ovcharenko—7510
WFeb 19 · 13:30D. Stapor—713118113M. Ovcharenko—111181192
WFeb 19 · 08:00D. Stapor—511117113M. Ovcharenko—11851162
LFeb 17 · 08:30D. Stapor—10450M. Ovcharenko—1211113
LFeb 13 · 06:00D. Stapor—8780M. Ovcharenko—1111113
WApr 27 · 20:00D. Stapor—13411113M. Ovcharenko—1111881
LApr 26 · 22:40D. Stapor—8670M. Ovcharenko—1111113
LApr 26 · 20:30D. Stapor—11811922M. Ovcharenko—811911113
WApr 25 · 11:00D. Stapor—1113113M. Ovcharenko—41190
D. Stapor10
WSep 6 · 22:35J. Masternak—1111138102D. Stapor—741511123LSep 6 · 19:35J. Masternak2.301111113D. Stapor1.504970LSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113LSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 17:05D. Stapor1.601081171S. Wloszek2.1012115113WSep 5 · 13:45S. Wloszek1.98111161052D. Stapor1.73881112113LSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171LSep 5 · 11:35S. Wloszek1.9511713113D. Stapor1.779111191LSep 5 · 10:05S. Radlo2.00131211113D. Stapor1.711510871LSep 5 · 08:05J. Masternak1.751114113D. Stapor1.9531260
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492
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