TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13075711
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141315811114119
Mateusz Burkacki
Away
2.65
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:37 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
97 points played in total.
Set by set
1141315811114119
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 2–0 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 05:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.38 (66%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1731 vs Burkacki 1475
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 256 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 60% vs Burkacki 20%
Ovcharenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 60% vs Burkacki 10%
Ovcharenko
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +1 · Burkacki -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burkacki form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.38 / Burkacki 2.65
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13075711
Ovcharenko1.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite74% won 25 of 34
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Burkacki2.65
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 47 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeOvcharenko2wins
AwayBurkacki0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoBurkackiO − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match44.037.5+6.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime100 / 161 vs 81 / 20162.1%40.3%100 / 161 vs 81 / 201Avg sets wonper match2.21.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.38/Burkacki 2.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.8%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko—1113811113M. Burkacki—41511492
WSep 3 · 09:30M. Ovcharenko—11111113M. Burkacki—761181
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
M. Burkacki10
LSep 7 · 05:00S. Radlo1.441111113M. Burkacki2.507970LSep 4 · 13:00M. Burkacki1.984930P. Gola1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 09:30S. Radlo1.489990M. Burkacki2.361111113WSep 4 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.051511118163P. Gola1.68178611142LSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113LSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111WSep 3 · 11:00M. Burkacki2.101111711113S. Wloszek1.6076111382LSep 3 · 09:30M. Burkacki2.85761181M. Ovcharenko1.3311111113LSep 3 · 08:00M. Burkacki2.301081141D. Skvarskyi1.5512119113
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