TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076245
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.46
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118411711611––
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:57 and never touched — 64.8% is still 64.8%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
64.8%
64.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
118411711611––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 7–2 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:57What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Ovcharenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Ovcharenko
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1715 vs Stepien 1633
Ovcharenko
Wrong
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 80% vs Stepien 40%
Ovcharenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 70% vs Stepien 50%
Ovcharenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +2 · Stepien -3
Stepien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ovcharenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.46 / Stepien 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13076245
Ovcharenko1.46
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 20 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Stepien2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 34 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeOvcharenko7wins
AwayStepien2wins
2 of 9 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–2, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko100%6 of 6
AwayStepien66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko6Stepien3n = 9Ovcharenko took 6 of 9
S2Ovcharenko4Stepien5n = 9Stepien took 5 of 9
S3Ovcharenko6Stepien3n = 9Ovcharenko took 6 of 9
S4Ovcharenko3Stepien1n = 4Ovcharenko took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoStepienO − SBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match36.831.9+4.9per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime97 / 157 vs 651 / 118061.8%55.2%97 / 157 vs 651 / 1180Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.46/Stepien 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.3%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WFeb 28 · 13:05M. Ovcharenko—1111133M. Stepien—89110
WFeb 24 · 07:00M. Ovcharenko—111112113M. Stepien—671461
LFeb 23 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—6590M. Stepien—1111113
LFeb 20 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko—9790M. Stepien—1111113
WFeb 16 · 14:10M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—6590
WFeb 16 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko—114118113M. Stepien—81191182
WFeb 15 · 22:05M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—7450
WFeb 10 · 10:30M. Ovcharenko—771711113M. Stepien—111115362
WApr 26 · 14:00M. Ovcharenko—11911113M. Stepien—711581
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341WSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113
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