TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13077439
Played Sep 4Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.55
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
113114611118––
Marcin Stepien
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeMaksim Ovcharenko to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
65 points played in total.
Set by set
113114611118––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 7–3 Marcin Stepien Marcin Stepien has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:18What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.55 (59%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-3 in 10
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1720 vs Stepien 1674
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 80% vs Stepien 60%
Ovcharenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 70% vs Stepien 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +2 · Stepien +3
Stepien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Ovcharenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.55 / Stepien 2.20
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13077439
Ovcharenko1.55
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 20 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it100% 14 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Stepien2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog52% won 34 of 66
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko7wins
AwayStepien3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayStepien66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko7Stepien3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Ovcharenko4Stepien6n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S3Ovcharenko6Stepien4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Ovcharenko3Stepien2n = 5Ovcharenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoStepienO − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match35.932.8+3.1per matchSweeps32+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoStepienBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 160 vs 654 / 118361.9%55.3%99 / 160 vs 654 / 1183Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.55/Stepien 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.9%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—114761M. Stepien—81111113
WFeb 28 · 13:05M. Ovcharenko—1111133M. Stepien—89110
WFeb 24 · 07:00M. Ovcharenko—111112113M. Stepien—671461
LFeb 23 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko—6590M. Stepien—1111113
LFeb 20 · 11:00M. Ovcharenko—9790M. Stepien—1111113
WFeb 16 · 14:10M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—6590
WFeb 16 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko—114118113M. Stepien—81191182
WFeb 15 · 22:05M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Stepien—7450
WFeb 10 · 10:30M. Ovcharenko—771711113M. Stepien—111115362
WApr 26 · 14:00M. Ovcharenko—11911113M. Stepien—711581
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113WSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113WSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
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