TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088518
Played Sep 6Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116115117––––
Dawid Stapor
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:17 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
116115117––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 78–99 Dawid Stapor Marcin Stepien has won 78 of their 177 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:17What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
78-99 in 177
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 21 in 177, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1649 vs Stapor 1514
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Stapor 20%
Stepien
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 50% vs Stapor 30%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -2 · Stapor -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Stepien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.50 / Stapor 2.40
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Stepien)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13088518
Stepien1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 343
Up 2–0, closes it94% 137 of 146
Up 1–0, closes it81% 161 of 200
Stapor2.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog53% won 47 of 88
Down 0–1, comes back29% 13 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStepien6wins
AwayStapor4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderStepien leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStepien75%6 of 8
AwayStaporn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stepien8Stapor2n = 10Stepien took 8 of 10
S2Stepien4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S3Stepien6Stapor4n = 10Stepien took 6 of 10
S4Stepien3Stapor5n = 8Stapor took 5 of 8
S5Stepien3Stapor2n = 5Stepien took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStepienStaporStepien − StaporBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.7+4.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime645 / 1173 vs 481 / 90655%53.1%645 / 1173 vs 481 / 906Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.50/Stapor 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.3%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 1 · 05:00M. Stepien—9209101D. Stapor—111811123
WAug 27 · 11:00M. Stepien—1111113D. Stapor—8490
LAug 23 · 16:35M. Stepien—11117852D. Stapor—851111113
WAug 21 · 05:00M. Stepien—1110118113D. Stapor—61241172
WAug 18 · 05:00M. Stepien—1111113D. Stapor—4950
WJul 29 · 13:40M. Stepien—111011113D. Stapor—512731
WJul 29 · 11:30M. Stepien—11101111113D. Stapor—61213572
LJul 28 · 11:00M. Stepien—991241D. Stapor—111110113
WJul 26 · 14:45M. Stepien—118511113D. Stapor—31111782
LJul 26 · 12:35M. Stepien—12811562D. Stapor—1011411113
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113WSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
D. Stapor10
WSep 6 · 22:35J. Masternak—1111138102D. Stapor—741511123LSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113LSep 6 · 19:35J. Masternak2.301111113D. Stapor1.504970LSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113LSep 6 · 17:05D. Stapor1.601081171S. Wloszek2.1012115113WSep 5 · 13:45S. Wloszek1.98111161052D. Stapor1.73881112113LSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171LSep 5 · 11:35S. Wloszek1.9511713113D. Stapor1.779111191LSep 5 · 10:05S. Radlo2.00131211113D. Stapor1.711510871LSep 5 · 08:05J. Masternak1.751114113D. Stapor1.9531260
Upcoming Matches
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