TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13090694
Played Sep 7Finished
Bartlomiej Molka
Home
2.14
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911711118711––
Michal Lysakowski
Away
1.58
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:16 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Molka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
911711118711––
H2H Bartlomiej Molka 41–64 Michal Lysakowski Bartlomiej Molka has won 41 of their 105 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:16What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Lysakowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-64 in 105
Lysakowski
Correct
gap of 23 in 105, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Molka 1628 vs Lysakowski 1661
Lysakowski
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Molka 80% vs Lysakowski 40%
Molka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Molka 80% vs Lysakowski 50%
Molka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Molka +3 · Lysakowski +2
Molka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lysakowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMolka 2.14 / Lysakowski 1.58
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Lysakowski)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13090694
Molka2.14
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 181 of 408
Down 0–1, comes back21% 48 of 229
Down 0–2, comes back5% 6 of 131
Lysakowski1.58
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite54% won 187 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it90% 119 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it74% 160 of 217
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMolka4wins
AwayLysakowski6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLysakowski leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMolka75%3 of 4
AwayLysakowski83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Molka4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S2Molka4Lysakowski6n = 10Lysakowski took 6 of 10
S3Molka5Lysakowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Molka2Lysakowski4n = 6Lysakowski took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMolkaLysakowskiM − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.638.1−3.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMolkaLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime532 / 1166 vs 643 / 131845.6%48.8%532 / 1166 vs 643 / 1318Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LysakowskiMolka 2.14/Lysakowski 1.58
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.3%
Lysakowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lysakowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka—971171M. Lysakowski—11118113
LAug 31 · 07:00B. Molka—129991M. Lysakowski—101111113
LAug 30 · 15:35B. Molka—912531M. Lysakowski—111011113
WAug 28 · 08:30B. Molka—1312113M. Lysakowski—111040
LAug 26 · 12:00B. Molka—5890M. Lysakowski—1111113
WAug 19 · 07:30B. Molka—11717123M. Lysakowski—91115101
LAug 17 · 13:10B. Molka—67110M. Lysakowski—1111133
WAug 17 · 06:30B. Molka—711911133M. Lysakowski—118118112
LAug 16 · 15:05B. Molka—661181M. Lysakowski—11119113
WAug 14 · 08:00B. Molka—1111113M. Lysakowski—7990
B. Molka10
WSep 7 · 05:30B. Molka2.10111011113D. Skvarskyi1.65312461WSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 22:05S. Wloszek2.074101251B. Molka1.62111210113LSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 18:35D. Stapor1.6951050B. Molka1.971112113WSep 6 · 16:35J. Masternak1.95116451B. Molka1.7491111113WSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 5 · 14:45B. Molka1.82911991S. Radlo1.8211911113WSep 5 · 12:35B. Molka2.0011147113D. Stapor1.729121171WSep 5 · 10:35D. Skvarskyi1.42711871B. Molka2.5011611113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113LSep 4 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2.009470P. Gola1.721111113LSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 08:00S. Radlo2.54911118113M. Lysakowski1.4611771192WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski2.101113113M. Stepien1.6581180WSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113WSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111LSep 3 · 11:30M. Ovcharenko1.6011711113M. Lysakowski2.10711411LSep 3 · 10:30S. Radlo2.37116711113M. Lysakowski1.5271111992
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