TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070755
Played Sep 3Finished
Maksim Ovcharenko
Home
1.60
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711114111––
Michal Lysakowski
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Lysakowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
63 points played in total.
Set by set
117711114111––
H2H Maksim Ovcharenko 9–7 Michal Lysakowski Michal Lysakowski has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:08What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Ovcharenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Ovcharenko
Correct
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ovcharenko 1711 vs Lysakowski 1646
Ovcharenko
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ovcharenko 60% vs Lysakowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ovcharenko 50% vs Lysakowski 70%
Lysakowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ovcharenko +1 · Lysakowski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Ovcharenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lysakowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOvcharenko 1.60 / Lysakowski 2.10
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Ovcharenko)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13070755
Ovcharenko1.60
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite77% won 17 of 22
Up 2–0, closes it100% 12 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Lysakowski2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog48% won 101 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back18% 18 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOvcharenko7wins
AwayLysakowski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderOvcharenko leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOvcharenko85.7%6 of 7
AwayLysakowski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ovcharenko7Lysakowski3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S2Ovcharenko7Lysakowski3n = 10Ovcharenko took 7 of 10
S3Ovcharenko6Lysakowski4n = 10Ovcharenko took 6 of 10
S4Ovcharenko2Lysakowski5n = 7Lysakowski took 5 of 7
S5Ovcharenko3Lysakowski1n = 4Ovcharenko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOvcharenkoLysakowskiO − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.536.3+3.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOvcharenkoLysakowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime114 / 193 vs 639 / 131559.1%48.6%114 / 193 vs 639 / 1315Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
OvcharenkoOvcharenko 1.60/Lysakowski 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Ovcharenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ovcharenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WFeb 28 · 11:35M. Ovcharenko—128116113M. Lysakowski—101181192
WFeb 27 · 14:10M. Ovcharenko—1112113M. Lysakowski—41050
LFeb 27 · 06:30M. Ovcharenko—118771M. Lysakowski—91111113
WFeb 25 · 12:00M. Ovcharenko—1211113M. Lysakowski—10960
WFeb 24 · 13:00M. Ovcharenko—1111113M. Lysakowski—3750
LFeb 20 · 07:00M. Ovcharenko—61112292M. Lysakowski—1151011113
LFeb 19 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko—1011471M. Lysakowski—12611113
WFeb 17 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko—1110116113M. Lysakowski—71251172
WFeb 16 · 24:35M. Ovcharenko—811512133M. Lysakowski—1171110112
WFeb 15 · 16:35M. Ovcharenko—12119113M. Lysakowski—1051171
M. Ovcharenko10
LSep 6 · 23:35M. Ovcharenko1.38712281B. Molka2.65111011113WSep 6 · 21:35D. Stapor3.253960M. Ovcharenko1.271111113WSep 6 · 20:35B. Molka2.529540M. Ovcharenko1.401111113WSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113LSep 6 · 16:05S. Wloszek3.151111101113M. Ovcharenko1.2863121182WSep 6 · 15:05J. Masternak2.805840M. Ovcharenko1.351111113WSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:00S. Radlo2.75671151M. Ovcharenko1.3911116113WSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 09:00M. Ovcharenko1.46114761M. Stepien2.5081111113
M. Lysakowski10
WSep 7 · 07:30B. Molka2.14971171M. Lysakowski1.5811118113WSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 4 · 12:30S. Radlo1.536660M. Lysakowski2.351111113LSep 4 · 12:00M. Lysakowski2.009470P. Gola1.721111113LSep 4 · 10:00M. Ovcharenko1.57101115113M. Lysakowski2.251281341LSep 4 · 08:00S. Radlo2.54911118113M. Lysakowski1.4611771192WSep 4 · 07:00M. Lysakowski2.101113113M. Stepien1.6581180WSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113WSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111LSep 3 · 10:30S. Radlo2.37116711113M. Lysakowski1.5271111992
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