TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13090695
Played Sep 7Finished
Marcin Stepien
Home
1.36
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171311116––––
Mateusz Burkacki
Away
2.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:16 and never touched — 62.2% is still 62.2%
Graded at full timeMarcin Stepien to win
62.2%
62.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
1171311116––––
H2H Marcin Stepien 2–0 Mateusz Burkacki Mateusz Burkacki has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:16What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (67%)
Stepien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stepien 1670 vs Burkacki 1460
Stepien
Correct
both rated, 211 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stepien 60% vs Burkacki 40%
Stepien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stepien 60% vs Burkacki 30%
Stepien
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stepien -1 · Burkacki -3
Burkacki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Stepien) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stepien form (60%) is below what odds imply (74%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStepien 1.36 / Burkacki 2.80
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Stepien)-0.0pp
TT Cup · #13090695
Stepien1.36
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 202 of 348
Up 2–0, closes it94% 140 of 149
Up 1–0, closes it81% 164 of 203
Burkacki2.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 47 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back23% 17 of 75
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStepien2wins
AwayBurkacki0wins
Stepien leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home2
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricStepienBurkackiS − BBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match34.019.5+14.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStepienBurkackiBasisWin rate · lifetime650 / 1180 vs 81 / 20355.1%39.9%650 / 1180 vs 81 / 203Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StepienStepien 1.36/Burkacki 2.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.3%
Stepien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Stepien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 7 · 07:00M. Stepien—1113113M. Burkacki—71160
WSep 4 · 11:30M. Stepien—1111113M. Burkacki—7440
M. Stepien10
LSep 7 · 06:00M. Lysakowski2.01124911143M. Stepien1.661011118122WSep 6 · 23:05M. Stepien1.351111113S. Wloszek3.008330WSep 6 · 21:05J. Masternak3.309460M. Stepien1.301111113WSep 6 · 20:05M. Stepien1.30911911123S. Wloszek2.93118116102LSep 6 · 19:05M. Stepien2.278850M. Ovcharenko1.521111113WSep 6 · 17:35M. Stepien1.501111113D. Stapor2.406570LSep 6 · 15:35M. Stepien1.415121261B. Molka2.55111014113LSep 4 · 13:30M. Ovcharenko1.5511116113M. Stepien2.20341181WSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 10:30P. Gola2.257640M. Stepien1.541111113
M. Burkacki10
LSep 7 · 05:00S. Radlo1.441111113M. Burkacki2.507970LSep 4 · 13:00M. Burkacki1.984930P. Gola1.731111113LSep 4 · 11:30M. Burkacki2.307440M. Stepien1.551111113WSep 4 · 09:30S. Radlo1.489990M. Burkacki2.361111113WSep 4 · 08:30M. Burkacki2.051511118163P. Gola1.68178611142LSep 4 · 07:30M. Ovcharenko1.381113811113M. Burkacki2.6541511492LSep 4 · 06:00M. Burkacki2.2941111872M. Lysakowski1.51115911113LSep 3 · 12:40M. Lysakowski1.7511412133M. Burkacki1.9851110111WSep 3 · 11:00M. Burkacki2.101111711113S. Wloszek1.6076111382LSep 3 · 09:30M. Burkacki2.85761181M. Ovcharenko1.3311111113
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