TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13052089
Played Sep 1Finished
Wiktor Ptak
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111169111012
Mariusz Baron
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:06 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeWiktor Ptak to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingWiktor Ptak above · Mariusz Baron below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 95 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Wiktor Ptak at 55.8%
95 points played in total.
H2H Wiktor Ptak 1–1 Mariusz Baron Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:06What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ptak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Ptak 1340 vs Baron 1298
Ptak
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ptak 20% vs Baron 40%
Baron
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ptak 30% vs Baron 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ptak +1 · Baron -3
Baron
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Ptak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ptak form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPtak 1.67 / Baron 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Ptak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13052089
Ptak1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite65% won 53 of 82
Up 2–0, closes it94% 30 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it80% 41 of 51
Baron2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 193 of 486
Down 0–1, comes back24% 65 of 266
Down 0–2, comes back9% 12 of 139
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomePtak1wins
AwayBaron1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricPtakBaronP − BBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match40.537.0+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPtakBaronBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 124 vs 872 / 180557.3%48.3%71 / 124 vs 872 / 1805Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.639.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PtakPtak 1.67/Baron 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Ptak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Baron won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 22 · 10:10W. Ptak—1112113M. Baron—81090
LJul 22 · 07:45W. Ptak—11119972M. Baron—591111113
W. Ptak10
LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113LSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470WSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 11:00W. Ptak2.108490K. Adamus1.671111113WSep 2 · 09:50W. Ptak1.5011127113J. Kaczmarek2.508101161LSep 2 · 08:10W. Ptak1.67791191O. Vincenec2.1011119113WSep 2 · 06:30P. Brozek1.73101271162W. Ptak2.001210116113WSep 2 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.5012101191W. Ptak1.5014126113LSep 2 · 04:55W. Ptak2.10148991K. Adamus1.67121111113WSep 2 · 03:50W. Ptak1.6711711113P. Przewlocki2.10811981
M. Baron10
LSep 7 · 04:20M. Baron2.909580L. Oracz1.351111113LSep 7 · 03:05M. Baron1.785990G. Marud1.931111113WSep 7 · 01:55M. Baron1.9011813113P. Kurek1.755111151LSep 7 · 24:45O. Jadach1.927111111113M. Baron1.8011913652WSep 6 · 23:55M. Baron1.80111111113M. Sikon1.90134761LSep 6 · 22:20M. Baron2.50118891O. Jadach1.4441111113WSep 6 · 21:05M. Baron1.8551211113G. Marud1.851110541LSep 6 · 19:55M. Baron2.124680P. Kurek1.621111113WSep 6 · 18:45L. Oracz1.4712125882M. Baron2.4510101111113LSep 6 · 17:55M. Baron1.801171191M. Sikon1.8513119113
Upcoming Matches
W. Ptak
Nothing scheduled
M. Baron1 of 1 neutral
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