TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059399
Played Sep 2Finished
Wiktor Ptak
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181210711116––
Jakub Kaczmarek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:04 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeWiktor Ptak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingWiktor Ptak above · Jakub Kaczmarek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 76 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Wiktor Ptak at 58.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Wiktor Ptak 2–1 Jakub Kaczmarek Jakub Kaczmarek has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ptak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ptak 1335 vs Kaczmarek 1295
Ptak
Correct
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ptak 60% vs Kaczmarek 40%
Ptak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ptak 40% vs Kaczmarek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ptak -1 · Kaczmarek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Ptak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPtak 1.50 / Kaczmarek 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Ptak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13059399
Ptak1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 56 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it80% 44 of 55
Kaczmarek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back19% 59 of 318
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 179
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePtak2wins
AwayKaczmarek1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderPtak leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ptak2Kaczmarek1n = 3Ptak took 2 of 3
S2Ptak3Kaczmarek0n = 3Ptak took 3 of 3
S3Ptak1Kaczmarek2n = 3Kaczmarek took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricPtakKaczmarekP − KBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match43.741.0+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPtakKaczmarekBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 130 vs 465 / 128056.9%36.3%74 / 130 vs 465 / 1280Avg sets wonper match2.11.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.835.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PtakPtak 1.50/Kaczmarek 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Ptak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ptak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 2 · 05:40W. Ptak—14126113J. Kaczmarek—12101191
LJul 22 · 09:00W. Ptak—9111213102J. Kaczmarek—1181411123
WJul 22 · 04:30W. Ptak—1111113J. Kaczmarek—9790
W. Ptak10
LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113LSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470WSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 11:00W. Ptak2.108490K. Adamus1.671111113LSep 2 · 08:10W. Ptak1.67791191O. Vincenec2.1011119113WSep 2 · 06:30P. Brozek1.73101271162W. Ptak2.001210116113WSep 2 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.5012101191W. Ptak1.5014126113LSep 2 · 04:55W. Ptak2.10148991K. Adamus1.67121111113WSep 2 · 03:50W. Ptak1.6711711113P. Przewlocki2.10811981LSep 1 · 14:20W. Ptak1.67115119102M. Baron2.10911611123
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 2 · 05:40J. Kaczmarek2.5012101191W. Ptak1.5014126113
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