TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13059600
Played Sep 2Finished
Jakub Kaczmarek
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
12141012116911––
Wiktor Ptak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeWiktor Ptak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Kaczmarek above · Wiktor Ptak below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 85 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Wiktor Ptak at 58.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Kaczmarek 1–1 Wiktor Ptak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:57What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Ptak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Kaczmarek 1298 vs Ptak 1323
Ptak
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaczmarek 40% vs Ptak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaczmarek 50% vs Ptak 30%
Kaczmarek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaczmarek -1 · Ptak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Ptak) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ptak form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaczmarek 2.50 / Ptak 1.50
Signal prob.38% / 63%
Edge (Ptak)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13059600
Kaczmarek2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog33% won 159 of 487
Down 0–1, comes back19% 59 of 318
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 179
Ptak1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite62% won 56 of 90
Up 2–0, closes it94% 31 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it80% 44 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKaczmarek1wins
AwayPtak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricKaczmarekPtakK − PBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match40.544.0−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaczmarekPtakBasisWin rate · lifetime466 / 1280 vs 72 / 12736.4%56.7%466 / 1280 vs 72 / 127Avg sets wonper match1.62.1per matchAvg pointsper match35.838.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PtakKaczmarek 2.50/Ptak 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Ptak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Ptak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 22 · 09:00J. Kaczmarek—1181411123W. Ptak—9111213102
LJul 22 · 04:30J. Kaczmarek—9790W. Ptak—1111113
J. Kaczmarek10
WSep 4 · 17:05R. Niemiec1.85611951J. Kaczmarek1.8011811113LSep 4 · 15:55J. Kaczmarek3.901181281S. Szostok1.2291114113LSep 4 · 14:45O. Jadach1.2511819113J. Kaczmarek3.757111731WSep 4 · 13:30W. Tobiasz1.5791181182J. Kaczmarek2.20119116113LSep 4 · 11:55G. Wichowski1.20115911113J. Kaczmarek3.8541111792LSep 4 · 11:05O. Jadach1.301113153J. Kaczmarek3.20811130LSep 4 · 09:55J. Kaczmarek3.3591131172S. Szostok1.27119119113WSep 4 · 08:45R. Niemiec1.8581411972J. Kaczmarek1.801112911113WSep 4 · 07:30W. Tobiasz1.601281081J. Kaczmarek2.10101112113LSep 4 · 05:55G. Wichowski1.251111113J. Kaczmarek3.509380
W. Ptak10
LSep 2 · 14:20W. Ptak1.61781191O. Vincenec2.2011119113LSep 2 · 12:40P. Brozek1.831111113W. Ptak1.839470WSep 2 · 11:50P. Przewlocki2.6371113562W. Ptak1.441181111113LSep 2 · 11:00W. Ptak2.108490K. Adamus1.671111113WSep 2 · 09:50W. Ptak1.5011127113J. Kaczmarek2.508101161LSep 2 · 08:10W. Ptak1.67791191O. Vincenec2.1011119113WSep 2 · 06:30P. Brozek1.73101271162W. Ptak2.001210116113LSep 2 · 04:55W. Ptak2.10148991K. Adamus1.67121111113WSep 2 · 03:50W. Ptak1.6711711113P. Przewlocki2.10811981LSep 1 · 14:20W. Ptak1.67115119102M. Baron2.10911611123
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