TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13018145
Played Aug 27Finished
Tomas Dousa
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1214121014128111113
Radim Pavelka
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeRadim Pavelka to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousa above · Radim Pavelka below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 117 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Radim Pavelka at 56.1%
117 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousa 29–27 Radim Pavelka Radim Pavelka has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:38What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Pavelka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-27 in 56
Dousa
Wrong
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousa 1448 vs Pavelka 1546
Pavelka
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousa 20% vs Pavelka 60%
Pavelka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousa 40% vs Pavelka 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousa -4 · Pavelka -1
Dousa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pavelka) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousa form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousa 1.83 / Pavelka 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Pavelka)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13018145
Dousa1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Pavelka1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousa5wins
AwayPavelka5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousa66.7%2 of 3
AwayPavelka57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousa3Pavelka7n = 10Pavelka took 7 of 10
S2Dousa4Pavelka6n = 10Pavelka took 6 of 10
S3Dousa7Pavelka3n = 10Dousa took 7 of 10
S4Dousa5Pavelka4n = 9Dousa took 5 of 9
S5Dousa3Pavelka3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousaPavelkaD − PBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match41.843.0−1.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousaPavelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime342 / 699 vs 445 / 88948.9%50.1%342 / 699 vs 445 / 889Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PavelkaDousa 1.83/Pavelka 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Pavelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Pavelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 21:28T. Dousa—96111182R. Pavelka—111186113
LJul 31 · 19:30T. Dousa—911681R. Pavelka—11511113
LJul 3 · 17:30T. Dousa—89111272R. Pavelka—1111810113
WJul 3 · 15:30T. Dousa—512119113R. Pavelka—111091172
WJun 29 · 17:30T. Dousa—11713113R. Pavelka—9111181
LJun 29 · 16:30T. Dousa—114131182R. Pavelka—9111113113
WJun 15 · 14:30T. Dousa—1171110113R. Pavelka—41151282
LJun 8 · 14:30T. Dousa—9450R. Pavelka—1111113
WMay 26 · 14:30T. Dousa—411911133R. Pavelka—118119112
WMay 25 · 15:30T. Dousa—61111113R. Pavelka—116751
T. Dousa10
WAug 31 · 21:28T. Dousa1.801112113P. Fojt1.9181080WAug 31 · 20:00P. Fojt1.839270T. Dousa1.831111113WAug 31 · 19:00M. Kolar2.25691181T. Dousa1.5711118113WAug 31 · 18:30T. Dousa1.401111123Y. Holovatiuk2.7599100LAug 27 · 17:29R. Pavelka1.7381111113T. Dousa2.00117891WAug 27 · 16:00T. Dousa1.831115133J. Plachy1.83913110WAug 27 · 15:30K. Darin2.1011118862T. Dousa1.67591111113LAug 24 · 20:58J. Dedek1.80111195113T. Dousa1.9186111132LAug 24 · 20:30J. Prokupek1.83111117113T. Dousa1.83891981LAug 24 · 19:30T. Dousa1.839111381J. Dedek1.8311215113
R. Pavelka10
WSep 6 · 20:59J. Prokupek1.916570R. Pavelka1.801111113LSep 6 · 20:00R. Pavelka1.611015561J. Trefny2.20121311113LSep 6 · 19:30J. Dedek2.0012811113R. Pavelka1.731011781WSep 6 · 18:00R. Pavelka1.6711156113J. Prokupek2.106131121LSep 5 · 09:30J. Svoboda1.361111113R. Pavelka3.008550LSep 5 · 08:30J. Svoboda1.2581111113R. Pavelka3.75117471WSep 5 · 07:30R. Pavelka2.251161111113T. Holik1.5751113792WSep 5 · 06:30M. Sedlak1.806780R. Pavelka1.911111113LSep 4 · 17:30F. Just1.301311113R. Pavelka3.4011930WAug 27 · 17:29R. Pavelka1.7381111113T. Dousa2.00117891
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